Syria diplomacy will make little headway

Significance

As one of the insurgency's key external backers, Riyadh is seeking to create a united political front for the Syrian opposition ahead of proposed international talks in Vienna on ending Syria's civil war, due to begin by January 1. The Vienna process is the first serious international diplomatic effort to resolve the Syrian conflict following the failed Geneva talks in January 2014.

Impacts

• The absence of powerful, hardline Islamist groups from the talks will limit the effectiveness of any agreement.
• As the war drags on, sectarian tensions and Sunni radicalisation around the region will increase.
• International efforts to destroy Islamic State group will fail so long as the civil war continues.
• The Vienna process will increase Russia's regional influence and Iran's diplomatic status.