Jordan set to ride out rising terrorism threat

Subject

Jordan's stability outlook.

Significance

Jordan's domestic scene has remained calm since the 2011 Arab uprisings. However, external challenges to its stability are mounting -- from Russia's intervention in the region, to the Syrian refugee population, Israeli-Palestinian tensions, and the Islamic State group (ISG) -- raising new questions about the kingdom's resilience to the political turbulence on its borders.

Impacts

• Terrorism will likely take the form of 'lone wolf' operations, and occasional high-profile attacks by jihadist cells on soft targets.
• A Russian-Syrian regime offensive in south Syria could spark a new refugee influx into Jordan, and push moderate rebels towards extremists.
• West and Gulf allies will face increased pressure to extend political and financial support to Jordan.
• Domestic politics will remain calm, with limited risk of anti-government protests.