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Afghanistan risks becoming a 'failed state'

Friday, November 20, 2015

Subject

Outlook for the Afghan state.

Significance

The steady decline of Afghanistan's security situation and economy, and the paralysis of the National Unity Government led by President Ashraf Ghani, have brought into sharp relief the negligible returns of the heavy financial, military and political capital expended on the country by NATO allies, especially the United States, since 2001. With NATO's drawdown now in its final years, Afghanistan faces dire prospects.

Impacts

  • Central Asian security will suffer as Taliban insurgents expand in the north.
  • However, a strong Taliban will also contain the Islamic State group's footprint in Afghanistan.
  • Pakistan will prioritise its own national interests regarding Afghanistan, mainly to pressure India.

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