Russian build-up raises geopolitical stakes in Syria

Significance

US officials estimate that Russia has dispatched tanks and artillery to Syria in recent weeks in a reported military build-up, raising concerns that Moscow is embarking upon an extensive mission to bolster President Bashar al-Assad's embattled regime and establish a substantial Russian military presence in the Middle East. The build-up comes amid an intensive Russian diplomatic drive in Syria.

Impacts

• Recent attempts to revive the UN-backed Geneva peace process will stumble due to the lack of US-Russian and Saudi-Iranian unanimity.
• Russia will use its influence over Assad as a bargaining chip in its stand-off with the United States and Europe.
• Hezbollah and Tehran will be emboldened by Moscow's solid backing of the Assad regime.
• However, this may also complicate Russia's ties with the Gulf states, Turkey and Israel.