United States will pursue modest goals in Syria

Significance

In September 2014, the United States and coalition partners began an air campaign against Islamic State group (ISG) in Syria following its seizure of large swathes of northern and western Iraq. While these developments have not changed overall US policy in Syria -- to encourage a negotiated political settlement between regime and opposition -- they have seen Washington's focus move away from the civil war and onto counter-terrorism and containing ISG in Iraq.

Impacts

• Islamist rebels backed by Gulf states and Turkey will dominate the insurgency and influence any post-Assad government.
• Efforts to destroy ISG in Iraq are unlikely to succeed so long as it retains a safe haven in Syria.
• US air support will help Kurds establish contiguous zone of control in northern Syria, prompting Ankara to respond.
• Without access to game-changing US weapons, Syrian rebels will not have the firepower needed to defeat the regime.
• The regime will withdraw steadily from outlying areas and consolidate its control on Damascus, the Homs-Hama corridor and western Syria.