Somalia's fast-tracked state creation carries risks

Significance

The Central Somalia formation conference took place in Adado and swore in its regional assembly members on June 22. However, June was a fraught month for the federal process. The Islamist militia, Ahlu Sunna wal Jama'a (ASWJ), has rejected Galmudug's formation, instead establishing an Islamic Court and a rival state formation process in another regional town. Meanwhile, a clan-related dispute over the leadership of the Jubbaland State assembly led to the suspension of relations between Mogadishu and Kismayo in early June, after the federal parliament passed a vote of no-confidence in the regional assembly.

Impacts

• Infighting within member states -- and between states and Mogadishu -- is decreasing the slim chances of holding direct elections in 2016.
• Donor reluctance to commit pledged funds, fuelled by corruption concerns, is hampering the government's capacity and legitimacy.
• Al-Shabaab's Ramadan offensive highlights the constraints of both the African Union peacekeepers (AMISOM) and the Somali National Army.