Opposition surge raises instability risks in Gabon

Subject

Political economy outlook for Gabon.

Significance

Gabon earlier this month issued a 500 million dollar ten-year euro-bond at a 6.95% yield to support the government's economic policies. President Ali Bongo faces growing opposition to his family's nearly 50-year rule ahead of elections scheduled for 2016. He hopes a largely debt-funded stimulus programme will mitigate this, but results may only be felt in the medium term.

Impacts

• The Moroccan king's state visit could lay the foundations for new investment, notably in finance and telecommunications.
• New military equipment purchases and pay rises for soldiers will reinforce the army's support for Bongo, assisting regime continuity.
• Planned expansion from French consumer goods firm CFAO will help it retain strong market position across multiple sectors.
• Logging sacred Kevazingo trees for export to China could spur Sinophobic sentiment.