Missile and minister's purge raise North Korea risk

Subject

North Korea's politics and foreign relations.

Significance

North Korea on May 9 announced its first ever test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). Separately, Pyongyang has yet to comment on allegations by South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) on May 13 that the North's defence minister, Hyon Yong-chol, was publicly executed using anti-aircraft guns around April 30, apparently for disrespect and disobedience to Kim.

Impacts

• Delivering on pledges of economic improvement would buy Kim loyalty, but there are reasons for pessimism.
• The new missile threat will raise North Korea's place on the list of US priorities.
• Decisions on missile defence in South Korea will become more urgent.