New Saudi leaders may clash over regional policy

Subject

Saudi leadership reshuffle.

Significance

King Salman's recent leadership changes have boosted the authority of his favoured son, Defence Minister and new Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and that of his nephew, Interior Minister and new Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, with both now holding prime ministerial-level powers. The 80-year old king is subject to ill-health, and is therefore happy to divide day-to-day government between the two cousins while retaining overall control of policy. However, Salman's empowering of his son could cause internal tensions within the House of Saud. Mohammed Bin Salman and Mohammed bin Nayef may struggle to work together given their overlapping responsibilities and potential competition for the throne.

Impacts

• Bureaucratic processes and decision-making are likely to speed up significantly.
• Without proper consensus and careful top-level planning, the Yemen conflict could endanger Saudi security.
• Bin Salman may seek to persuade his father to remove bin Nayef as crown prince to secure his own path to the throne.
• Any changes in oil policy will await the appointment of a new oil minister.
• Military and defence sales ties relations with the United States, United Kingdom and France will remain intact.