State elections will affect national outlook in Mexico

Subject

The outlook for state-level elections.

Significance

Campaigning has begun in the nine gubernatorial races due on June 7. These elections will coincide with voting for mayors and state legislators, as well as with the federal mid-term electoral process to renew the 500-seat Lower House of Congress. Another seven states and Mexico City will also elect municipal authorities (borough leaders in Mexico City) and local legislatures.

Impacts

• The process will test the 2013 electoral reform and the credibility and effectiveness of the new INE.
• Most states face a two-way race between the PRI and the PAN, but in Michoacan and Baja California Sur the PRD is also competitive.
• Guerrero and Michoacan polls may worsen local stability, further hitting the federal government's perceived security record.