Shot selection and managerial efficiency in the NBA

Abstract

Purpose

We introduce a novel type of basketball shot chart, a true shot chart, that incorporates total points, accounting for both field goals and free throws, corresponding to each shot taken. We then create a shot selection measure called shot selection efficiency that summarizes the efficiency of a team’s shot chart. Lastly, we validate the measure using fixed effects regression analysis and determine whether shot selection is priced efficiently in the NBA player labor market.

Design/methodology/approach

We utilize fixed effects regression analysis to validate a measure and also to determine managerial payroll efficiency in the NBA.

Findings

We find that shot selection efficiency is a source of wins not fully explained by team payroll. That is, it is not fully priced into the player labor market.

Research limitations/implications

Teams are in need of the shot chart summary measure provided, as they are not efficiently pricing players in the player labor market with respect to shot selection.

Originality/value

This research introduces a novel shot chart type for basketball as well as a novel shot chart summary measure. It also validates the measure and establishes an NBA player labor market inefficiency related to the measure.

Citation

Ehrlich, J.A. and Sanders, S. (2024), "Shot selection and managerial efficiency in the NBA", Managerial Finance, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/MF-06-2024-0449