Optimal project portfolio selection with reinvestment strategy considering sustainability in an uncertain environment: a multi-objective optimization approach

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to develop a model for project portfolio selection considering organizational goals such as budgets, sustainability cash flow and reinvestment strategy under an uncertain environment.

Design/methodology/approach

A multi-objective mathematical programming model is proposed for project selection, which takes the social, environmental and financial aspects into account as the objectives of the project portfolio selection problem. The project evaluation and selection process in one of the large capitals in the Middle East with numerous urban construction projects was considered as a real case study, in which the subjects of environmental and social sustainability are of great importance. Then, the most significant criteria for project evaluation and selection based on sustainability were identified and ranked using the fuzzy best-worst method (BWM).

Findings

The criterion of “defining clear and real objectives” was ranked first, “project investment return period” was ranked second, “minimum changes in the predicted range” was ranked third, and the other ten sustainability indicators were ranked as well. Next, the presented mathematical programming model was solved using the augmented e-constraint method. The sensitivity analysis indicated that increasing the amount of investments in projects would increase their net present value. Also, increased investment had no effect on sustainability, while decreased investment caused sustainability to not being optimal.

Originality/value

This study focuses on the impact of the amount of investments on projects, and the associated costs of sustainable projects. Further to the authors' knowledge, there has been no relevant study taking uncertainty into account. Also, very few studies proposed a mathematical programming model for the project portfolio selection problem. Moreover, this research uses the brainstorming and Delphi method to identify the sustainability indicators influencing the organization and screens the evaluation indicators. Furthermore, the weights of the evaluation indicators are determined using the fuzzy BWM based on the consistency of opinions.

Citation

Zarjou, M. and Khalilzadeh, M. (2022), "Optimal project portfolio selection with reinvestment strategy considering sustainability in an uncertain environment: a multi-objective optimization approach", Kybernetes, Vol. 51 No. 8, pp. 2437-2460. https://doi.org/10.1108/K-11-2020-0737