Editorial: Is theory of planned behaviour a good predictor of the future?

Citation

Yeoman, I.S. (2024), "Editorial: Is theory of planned behaviour a good predictor of the future?", Journal of Tourism Futures, Vol. 10 No. 2, pp. 162-164. https://doi.org/10.1108/JTF-06-2024-304

Theory of planned behaviour (TPB) is an extension of the earlier theory of reasoned action from psychology (Fishbein and Ajzen, 2010). Both models emphasise, but are not restricted to, a deliberate processing of available information in the formation of intentions and hence the future. The origins of the approach lie in the psychological processes by which attitudes cause behaviour and in an analysis of the failure to predict behaviour from individuals' attitudes. We can use an expectancy value framework to explain relations and attitudes, thus mediating behaviour intention. The papers in the issue address the use of TPB and other similar methods, as human behaviour is primarily the result of rational planning and decision-making.

A short-term and rational perspective on the future

Yang et al.'s (2024) research sets out to predict the effect of cultural distance, perceived risk and electronic word of mouth (eWOM) on higher education institutes' students' destination image. In addition, it examines the mediating role of destination image in relation to students' travel intentions. This research confirms the vital role of destination image as an antecedent of students' future intentions to visit the destination. Moreover, this study contributes to marketing theory by predicting the critical drivers of higher education students' destination image and discussing their applications in the education sector. Alam et al.'s (2024) research evaluated the determinants of augmented reality (AR) adoption in Malaysia's travel and tour operator sectors through an integrated technology-organisation-environmental (TOE) and diffusion of innovation (DOI) model. The TOE and DOI were considered the primary theoretical models, but they are combined and extended by including a few additional variables. The empirical results established that perceived cost, relative advantages, complexity and compatibility, observability, competitor pressure, value alignment, customer pressure and trialability are positively connected with the behavioural intention except for external support. The results reveal that value alignment partially mediates the association between relative advantages and behavioural intention, complexity and behavioural intention, compatibility and behavioural intention, perceived cost and behavioural intention, except in between trialability and observability. Ye et al.'s (2024) research examined how the initial ambiguity of COVID-19 contributed to tourists' intentions for visiting a once-viral outbreak site in the future. The findings suggest perceptions of COVID-19 risk and tourism value serially mediated the effects of perceived COVID-19 ambiguity on post-pandemic travel intentions. Safety orientation did not moderate any paths. Perceived risk was a direct negative correlate of post-pandemic travel intentions. Thus, the current study's strength is rooted in its specific targeting of post-pandemic travel intentions to Wuhan – the first city to experience a widescale outbreak of COVID-19 and subsequent international stigma – compared to general travel inclinations.

Behavioural changes

The research by Sivathanu et al. (2024) examined the tourists' visit intention by watching deepfake destination videos, using information manipulation and media richness. The results indicate that the factors that affect the tourists' visit intention after watching deepfake videos include information manipulation tactics, trust and media richness. This research also found that perceived deception and cognitive load do not influence tourists' visit intentions. Qezelbash et al.'s (2024) research examined tourists' behavioural changes in response to health crises. The study examines the individual's uncertainty and adaptability to the challenges using behavioural coping strategies. Findings report that social-support coping (instrumental) does not incorporate tourists' adaptive behaviours. Vulnerable vaccination significantly affects the extremeness of an individual's problem-focussed coping, which affects tourists' adaptive behaviours in crisis time, indicating the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccination on travel intention.

Value belief

Fauzi et al.'s (2024) research about tourists' intentions to visit green hotels, building on the TPB and the value-belief-norm theory. The research confirmed that tourists' intentions to stay at a green hotel is directly influenced by their subjective norms and perceived behavioural control. The study confirms the insignificant relationship between green trust, personal norms and tourists' stay intention. On the other hand, perceived morals, responsibility, willingness to pay more and perceived consumer effectiveness were significant in explaining the customer's subjective norms, personal norms and perceived behaviour control. The purpose of Zhang and Quoquab's (2024) research is to present a comprehensive knowledge mapping and an in-depth analysis of pro-environmental travel behaviour (PETB) research to better understand the global trends in this field that have emerged between 2000 and 2021. The findings reveal that PETB is an emerging topic, which has an increased number of publications in recent years. Though the collaboration network between scholars is dispersed, some countries exert a stronger collaboration network. Researchers from England, USA and China have worked more on this topic comparatively. “Pro-environmental norm” is found to be the major concern in regard to PETB, and the TPB is the most common theory used by scholars around the world. The research is amongst the pioneers to shed some light on the current research progress of PETB by using a bibliometric analysis to provide research directions for scholars.

Perceived risk

Yadav et al.'s (2024) research aims to examine the impact of online reviews on behavioural intentions via perceived risk. Perceived risk is both analytical and emotional. The stimulus–organism–response (S–O–R) framework guided this study to explore the interaction between online reviews, perceived risk and behavioural intentions. Findings suggest the role of online consumer reviews in reducing the perceived risk associated with experience dominant services like tourism. The paper reports that the eco-destination image significantly strengthens the effects of four travel motives (i.e. excitement, escape, knowledge-seeking and self-development) on ecotourism intention. However, the moderating impact of eco-destination image on the link between socialising motive and ecotourism intention is insignificant.

Ali et al.'s (2024) paper aims to investigate the technology usage behaviour of tourists in line with the modified unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT) model. The results reveal that performance expectancy, hedonic motivation and habit significantly influence the behavioural intention of tourists to use information and communication technology (ICT), whilst effort expectancy, social influence and facilitating conditions do not have a significant influence. However, actual ICT usage behaviour largely depends on the behavioural intention of the tourists and their habits, whilst the facilitating conditions do not have any influence in this case.

Kusumawati et al. (2024) investigated the factors of city branding post-COVID-19 looking and revisit intention. The results found that there were significant influences of city brand personality on brand experience, brand satisfaction, brand experience on perceived risk, brand satisfaction on revisit intention and perceived risk on revisit intention, suggesting various creative strategies should be implemented to promote the city as well as escalate tourist visits without ignoring the pandemic’s risks.

The future

Looking to the future, the Journal of Tourism Futures will rarely publish papers about the short-term future of tourism, as these topics are covered by other journals. Papers taking a short-term perspective or those transitioning into the future will be referred to the Research in Hospitality Management, our sister journal at NHL Stenden University of Applied Sciences. The Journal of Tourism Futures will only accept papers adopting a more long-term foresight perspective.