Covid-19 severity, government responses and stock market reactions: a study of 14 highly affected countries

Abstract

Purpose

This study undertakes a comprehensive investigation into the far-reaching repercussions of Covid-19 stimulus packages and containment policies on stock returns, meticulously examining a diverse array of 14 distinct markets.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employed the Panel SVAR model to analyze the relationships between various policies and stock market performance during the Covid-19 outbreak. The sample comprises 5432 daily observations spanning from December 2020 to January 2022 for the 14 selected markets, with missing data excluded.

Findings

The findings reveal three consistent impacts across all 14 markets. Firstly, stock returns immediately reversed and decreased within a day when Governments tightened containment policies. Secondly, economic stimulus packages led to a fall in stock returns. Thirdly, an increasing death rate caused the stock return to decrease in the following two days. These findings are supported by the uniform impulse responses in all three shocks, including common, composite and idiosyncratic shocks. Furthermore, all inverse root tests satisfy the stability conditions, indicating the stability and reliability of Panel SVAR estimations.

Practical implications

One vital implication is that all government decisions and measures taken against the shock of Covid-19 must consider economic impacts to avoid unnecessary financial losses and support the effective functioning of stock markets during similar shocks. Secondly, investors should view the decline in stock returns due to Covid-19 effects as temporary, resulting from anxiety about the outbreak. The study highlights the importance of monitoring the impact of policies on financial markets and the broader economy during crises. Overall, these insights can prove helpful for investment decisions and policymaking during future crises.

Originality/value

This study constitutes a noteworthy addition to the literature on behavioural finance and the efficient market hypothesis, offering a meticulous analysis of the multifaceted repercussions of Covid-19 on market interactions. In particular, it unveils the magnitude, duration and intricate patterns of market volatilities linked to significant shock events, encompassing a comprehensive dataset spanning 14 distinct markets.

Citation

Pham, T.T.X. and Chu, T.T.T. (2024), "Covid-19 severity, government responses and stock market reactions: a study of 14 highly affected countries", Journal of Risk Finance, Vol. 25 No. 1, pp. 130-159. https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-04-2023-0085