Lifecycle cost risk analysis for infrastructure projects with modified Bayesian networks
Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology
ISSN: 1726-0531
Article publication date: 6 February 2017
Abstract
Purpose
Previous research has little specific guidance on how to improve large infrastructures’ risk analysis. This paper aims to propose a practical risk analysis framework across the project lifecycle with Bayesian Networks (BNs).
Design/methodology/approach
The framework includes three phases. In the qualitative phase, primary risks were identified by literature reviews and interviews; questionnaires were used to determine key risks at each project stage and causal relationships between stage-related risks. In the quantitation, brainstorming and questionnaires, and techniques of ranked nodes/paths, risk map and Bayesian truth serum were adopted. Then, a BN-based risk assessment model was developed, and risk analysis was conducted with AgenaRisk software.
Findings
Twenty key risks across the lifecycle were determined: some risks were recurring and different risks emerged at various stages with the construction and feasibility most risky. Results showed that previous stages’ risks significantly amplified subsequent stages’ risks. Based on the causality of stage-related risks, a qualitative model was easily constructed. Ranked nodes/paths facilitated the quantification by requiring less statistical knowledge and fewer parameters than traditional BNs. As articulated by a case, this model yielded very simple and easy-to-understand representations of risks and risk propagation pathways.
Originality/value
Rare research has developed a BN risk assessment model from the perspective of project stages. A structured model, a propagation network among individual risks, stage-related risks, and the final adverse consequence, has been designed. This research provides practitioners with a realistic risk assessment approach and further understanding of dynamic and stage-related risks throughout large infrastructures’ lifecycle. The framework can be modified and used in other real-world risk analysis where risks are complex and develop in stages.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge the support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71231006). Also, their deepest respect and gratitude go to the researchers and practitioners who generously participated in the questionnaire surveys and interviews. Moreover, the author greatly thanks the constructive suggestions provided by anonymous reviewers and the editorial board of the Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology. They have contributed hugely to the current version of the paper.
Citation
Xia, N., Wang, X., Wang, Y., Yang, Q. and Liu, X. (2017), "Lifecycle cost risk analysis for infrastructure projects with modified Bayesian networks", Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology, Vol. 15 No. 1, pp. 79-103. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEDT-05-2015-0033
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2017, Emerald Publishing Limited