New tool for stock investment risk management: Trend forecasting based on individual investor behavior

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose a new tool for stock investment risk management through studying stocks with what kind of characteristics can be predicted by individual investor behavior.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on comment data of individual stock from the Snowball, a thermal optimal path method is employed to analyze the lead–lag relationship between investor attention (IA) and the stock price. And machine learning algorithms, including SVM and BP neural network, are used to predict the prices of certain kind of stock.

Findings

It turns out that the lead–lag relationships between IA and the stock price change dynamically. Forecasting based on investor behavior is more accurate only when the IA of the stock is stably leading its price change most of the time.

Research limitations/implications

One limitation of this paper is that it studies China’s stock market only; however, different conclusions could be drawn for other financial markets or mature stock markets.

Practical implications

As for the implications, the new tool could improve the prediction accuracy of the model, thus have practical significance for stock selection and dynamic portfolio management.

Originality/value

This paper is one of the first few research works that introduce individual investor data into portfolio risk management. The new tool put forward in this study can capture the dynamic interplay between IA and stock price change, which help investors identify and control the risk of their portfolios.

Citation

Sun, Y., Jin, Q., Cheng, Q. and Guo, K. (2020), "New tool for stock investment risk management: Trend forecasting based on individual investor behavior", Industrial Management & Data Systems, Vol. 120 No. 2, pp. 388-405. https://doi.org/10.1108/IMDS-03-2019-0125