Cointegration-causality analysis between terrorism and key macroeconomic indicators: Evidence from Pakistan

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is two folds: first, to analyze the long-run relationship between terrorism and key macroeconomic indicators (GDP growth, GDP per capita, inflation and unemployment) and second, to determine the direction of causality between these variables in Pakistan.

Design/methodology/approach

The relationship between terrorism and various macroeconomic indicators is analyzed by applying Johansen cointegration analysis. Furthermore, the causality between terrorism and macroeconomic indicators is tested by applying Toda Yamamoto Granger causality test.

Findings

The results show that there exists a long-run relationship between terrorism and key macroeconomic indicators. Furthermore, the results suggest that there exists a bi-directional causality between terrorism and inflation. The causality between GDP per capita, unemployment, GDP growth and terrorism is unidirectional.

Originality/value

There is a lack of research work conducted to analyze the long-run relationship and direction of causation between terrorism and various macroeconomic indicators specifically for Pakistan. The current paper fills the gap in the literature by using sophisticated econometric techniques and recent data set to provide the evidence of the relationship between terrorism and various macroeconomic indicators.

Citation

Ismail, A. and Amjad, S. (2014), "Cointegration-causality analysis between terrorism and key macroeconomic indicators: Evidence from Pakistan", International Journal of Social Economics, Vol. 41 No. 8, pp. 664-682. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-02-2013-0038