Spatial analysis of dependency culture resulting from exchange rate fluctuations on herding behavior in Iran’s housing market

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to examine the impact of cultural dependency stemming from exchange rate fluctuations (specifically the US dollar) on herding behavior in the housing market across 31 provinces of Iran from Q2 2011 to Q1 2022, using a spatial econometrics approach. After confirming the presence of spatial effects, the Dynamic Spatial Durbin Panel Model with Generalized Common Effects (SDM-DPD(GCE)) was selected from various spatial models for these provinces.

Design/methodology/approach

The study examines the impact of cultural dependency stemming from exchange rate fluctuations (specifically the US dollar) on herding behavior in the housing market across 31 provinces of Iran from Q2 2011 to Q1 2022, using a spatial econometrics approach. After confirming the presence of spatial effects, the Dynamic Spatial Durbin Panel Model with Generalized Common Effects (SDM-DPD(GCE)) was selected from various spatial models for these provinces.

Findings

The model estimation results indicate that fluctuations in the free market exchange rate of the dollar significantly and positively impact the housing market in both target and neighboring regions, fostering herding behavior characterized by cultural dependency within the specified timeframe. Additionally, the study found that variables such as the inflation rate, population density index and the logarithm of stock market trading volume have significant and positive impacts on the housing market. Conversely, the variable representing the logarithm of the distance from the provincial capital, Tehran, significantly and negatively impacts the housing market across Iranian provinces.

Originality/value

Given that housing is a fundamental need for households, the dramatic price increases in this sector (for instance, a more than 42-fold increase from 2011–2021) have significantly impacted the welfare of Iranian families. Currently, considering the average housing price in Tehran is around 50 million Tomans, and the average income of worker and employee groups is 8 million Tomans (as of 2021), the time required to purchase a 100-square-meter house, even with a 30% savings rate and stable housing prices, is approximately 180 years. Moreover, the share of housing and rent expenses in household budgets now constitutes about 70%. The speculative behavior in this market is so acute that, despite 25 million of Iran’s 87 million population being homeless or renting, over 2.5 million vacant homes (12% of the total housing stock) are not used. Therefore, various financial behaviors and decisions affect Iran’s housing market. Herd behavior is triggered by the signal of national currency devaluation (with currency exchange rates increasing more than 26-fold between 2011 and 2021) and transactions at higher prices in certain areas (particularly in northern Tehran) (Statistical Center of Iran, 2023). Given the origins of housing price surges, a price increase in one area quickly spreads to other regions, resulting in herd behavior in those areas (spillover effect). Consequently, housing market spikes in Iran tend to follow episodes of currency devaluation. Therefore, considering the presented discussions, one might question whether factors other than economic ones (such as herd behavior influenced by dependence culture) play a role in the rising housing prices. Or, if behavioral factors were indeed contributing to the increase in housing prices, what could be the cause of this herd movement? Has the exchange rate, particularly fluctuations in the free market dollar rate, triggered herd behavior in the housing market across Iran’s provinces? Or has the proximity and neighborhood effect been influential in the increase or decrease in housing prices in the market?

Citation

Nikpey Pesyan, V., Mohammadzadeh, Y., Rezazadeh, A. and Ansari Samani, H. (2024), "Spatial analysis of dependency culture resulting from exchange rate fluctuations on herding behavior in Iran’s housing market", International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-09-2024-0137