Socio-economic assessment of drought impacts in Lesotho: implications for early action

Abstract

Purpose

Lesotho is one of the most vulnerable countries to effects of climate change with resultant recurrent drought. Drought and dry spells have become a common feature that causes crop failure which subsequently causes food insecurity for agrarian communities. While drought-related research has explored the association between rainfall and crop production, there is a gap in understanding people’s experiences of drought impacts and their opinion about what actions could be taken to avoid such impacts in the future. This study aims to ask: what are people’s experiences of drought and potential early actions that could save livelihoods and reduce human suffering?

Design/methodology/approach

A qualitative research approach was adopted where this paper carried out consultations in three agroecological zones, i.e. Southern Lowlands, Northern Lowlands and Mountains of Lesotho. Overall, this paper conducted 48 community consultations where genderized focus group discussions (mixed elderly, mixed youth, middled aged men and women) and nine key informants (local authorities, schoolteachers, wisemen and women in the community) interviews were conducted. Furthermore, interviews with stakeholders at the district level (sectoral leaders in disaster risk reduction sub-sectors) were conducted.

Findings

This study finds that there are interlinked socio-economic, productive and environmental impacts. Drought-related impacts reported were: cost of food, prevalence of diarrhoea in children under five years of age, conflicts over resources, animal diseases and mortality, aridity and crop failure. Informants also perceived the following actions could be taken before a drought is manifested: clear agro-climatological early warning messages, tailor-made drought-relevant advisories, water harvesting and availability of drought-tolerant seeds. It is thus imperative to streamline policy interventions regarding dissemination of early warning messages and anticipatory actions to reduce the negative impacts of drought on livelihoods.

Research limitations/implications

In any qualitative study, the researchers need to reflect on their positionality and how that may influence the research process, outcomes and the general limitations of the research methods (Quandt, 2021). Given that the research team has worked with humanitarian organisations in the study area after which development interventions were implemented, this might have led to interviewees exaggerating the negative impacts of drought hoping the team to bring assistance into the community. In contrast, others may have downplayed the impact and anticipatory actions they deem necessary because of concern that people from different institutions come to ask questions without feedback.

Practical implications

This study provides much-needed evidence on how communities affected by drought conceptualise it and how it affects their livelihoods. It delivers an understanding of the nature of the impacts of drought and the nature of anticipatory actions perceived as essential in reducing these impacts and, in so doing, seeks to inform policymakers on designing interventions informed by evidence on lived experience. Future humanitarian and policy interventions to prepare for droughts can use this evidence to identify the type of support that would be the most well-received by community members who are preparing for long-term drying trends in their region.

Originality/value

The study presents an understanding of people’s opinions of the nature and state of drought impacts, which are key to any effort towards developing and implementing relevant anticipatory action interventions to minimise the impacts of drought.

Citation

Mojaki, R.A., Marake, M.V., Easton-Calabria, E., Marunye, J.R. and Coughlan de Perez, E. (2024), "Socio-economic assessment of drought impacts in Lesotho: implications for early action", International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-12-2023-0150

Introduction

Drought episodes are generally associated with oceanic atmospheric interactions such as changes in sea surface temperatures and warm phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over southern Africa. In addition to ENSO, increased climate-change-induced weather variability has been evident in Southern Africa (Manatsa et al., 2008) characterised by high inter- and intra-seasonal rainfall variability and increasing dryness. Due to variability and irregularities in intra-annual, intra-seasonal, inter-annual and inter-seasonal rainfall, drought events have increased in frequency, intensity and lasting longer whilst causing significant socio-economic interruptions, particularly in the austral summer rainfall region (Dieppois et al., 2019). Thus, there exist links between the occurrence of drought hotspots in the southern region in terms of seasonal and mean annual runoff and warm ENSO events. Furthermore, Alemaw (2022) stated that the occurrence of low seasonal rainfall totals together with high seasonal temperatures during El Nino/ENSO years are likely to be more frequent under future climate change.

Lesotho is located between latitudes 28° and 31°S, and longitudes 27° and 30°E. The country’s 30,355 square kilometres (km²⁾ land area has a topography characterized by a rugged terrain with elevations ranging from 1,388 metres (m) to 3,482 metres (m). In Lesotho, drought is the most characteristic climate change-associated hazard and records show that it is the most recurrent and impactful hazard over the last 100 years (World Bank, 2018). The most frequently recorded and impactful drought emergencies over the 25-year period (1991 / 1992–2015 / 2016) are agricultural and socio-economic in nature. Wall and Hayes (2016) stated that agricultural drought refers to the relationship between plant water demands and the amount of available water, particularly within the soil environment while socioeconomic droughts involve societal or environmental impacts that occur because of meteorological, agricultural or hydrological droughts.

In the 10-year period (2011 / 2012–2019 / 2020), Lesotho experienced at least three extreme drought episodes (2011 / 2012, 2015 / 2016, 2018 / 2019) with major impacts on food insecurity precipitating a declaration of a state of emergency (World Bank, 2018). According to the Lesotho Vulnerability Assessment Committee (LVAC) (LVAC, 2016a and LVAC, 2016b), 35% of the rural population was estimated to be food insecure even before the emergency declaration rising to 41% in January 2016 and 51% by May 2016, respectively. The situation is exacerbated by continuous crop failures, low incomes and high food prices, with 41% of rural families spending more than half of their income on food. The integrated food security phase analysis classification (IPC) (LVAC in 2018) showed an increase in the number of people in need of food assistance in the period of December 2018 to February 2019 and the situation was projected to shift from IPC phase 2 (stressed) to IPC phase 3 (crises), illustrating the magnitude of the challenge.

The net impact of the drought episodes was associated with a deterioration in natural resource-based livelihoods. In addition, drought-induced fallow, crop failure leading to reduced crop productivity and a decline in livestock-based livelihoods often collude to undermine socio-economic asset bases creating livelihood vulnerabilities. LVAC (2016a, 2016b) stated that cereal production decreased by 66% while specifically, maize decreased by 43% in Lesotho leading to a more than 50% hike in food prices especially white maize meal compared to a five-year average (LVAC, 2016b).

Nhemachena et al. (2020) stated that climate change is projected to decrease rainfall in Southern Africa, and parts of the region have already experienced drying trends in recent decades (Trisos et al., 2022). Any increases in the frequency, magnitude, duration and intensity of drought episodes in Lesotho have challenged community livelihoods and coping strategies in the advent of climate change because they leave little time to recover from the previous event [Lesotho Meteorological Services (LMS), (LMS, 2013; Kamara et al., 2020)]. There is national, regional and international capacity to forecast many droughts before they happen (Engelbrecht et al., 2011), and therefore governments and farmers are interested in taking early action to prevent drought effects before the event happens (De Wit, 2019). The advancements in technology have increased computational capability and improved understanding of climate, making drought prediction easier with state-of-the-art general circulation models, which provide drought prediction based on the physical processes of the atmosphere, ocean and land surface (Hao et al., 2018).

LVAC which was established in 2002 is a government-led multi-disciplinary committee within the Office of the Prime Minister – Disaster Management Authority (DMA). Its membership consists of Government Ministries and Departments, United Nations Organizations, non-governmental organisations and the private sector. It is mandated to carry out livelihood vulnerability analysis and its aim is to provide timely analysis for emergency interventions as well as medium to long-term programming (LVAC, 2017). Yet there remains an incomplete understanding of how drought affects people’s lives and livelihoods. Although LVAC in recent years considers understanding the impact of different shocks on different sectors, it has not conducted an in-depth analysis of people’s perceptions about how drought affects them. Many studies on drought in Lesotho have not moved beyond the quantification of drought impacts. Hence, the need to conduct an in-depth analysis of how and why drought devastates livelihoods and how communities are affected cannot be overemphasized.

This study provides much-needed evidence on how communities affected by drought understand and conceptualise it, and how it affects their livelihoods. It delivers an understanding of the nature of the impacts of drought as felt by the communities and the nature of anticipatory actions they perceive essential in reducing these impacts, and in so doing seeks to inform policymakers on designing interventions informed by evidence on lived experience. Future humanitarian and policy interventions to prepare for droughts can use this evidence to identify the type of support that would be the most well-received by community members who are preparing for long-term drying trends in their region.

The premise of this approach was that numbers alone do not portray a true picture of the impacts, but people’s opinions of the nature and state of drought impacts. This is because people’s knowledge, lived experiences of drought consequences and perceptions of the state of drought impacts are key to any effort towards developing and implementing relevant anticipatory actions (AA) interventions (Sam et al., 2020). Experience has shown that efforts to create suitable AA cannot rely solely on scientific knowledge as the knowledge of local actors and other stakeholders must also be incorporated. Clearly, local, and external knowledge and perceptions are both important.

Early warning messages are meant to enhance disaster risk reduction from climate and other hazards. When hazards cascade, they can lead to a large-scale disaster. For example, a severe rainstorm can cause flooding, which may contaminate water sources, which in turn may precipitate a cholera outbreak. Drought may precipitate a cascading effect of crop failure leading to price hikes and food and nutrition insecurity. Disaster risk can be viewed as a function of multiple factors, including hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity building (Cardona et al., 2012). To mitigate risks and avoid hazards cascading into disaster, an early warning system (EWS) requires partnerships, enabling environments, enhanced communication, capacity building and effective messaging using all available media. Grasso and Singh (2011) viewed effective communication of early warning messages as allowing communities and households to take precautionary measures that will help reduce the impacts of drought on their lives and livelihoods.

Study methodology

The Kingdom of Lesotho is situated at the highest part of the Drakensberg escarpment of the eastern rim of the Southern African plateau between 1,500 and 3,482 m above sea level (a.s.l). This landscape is divided into lowlands and the Senqu River Valley, foothills and the mountains regions (Schmitz and Rooyani, 1987). These physiographic regions are geographically based on elevation and agro-climatology, but coincidentally delineate livelihood zones (LVAC, 2005) with variable vulnerability and resilience to climate change. Over 80% of the productive arable lands- and coincidentally the highest population densities of the 2.2 million population (Lesotho Population and Housing Census, 2016) are found along a narrow belt of lowlands (20–50 km wide) along the north-western border with South Africa below 1800 m above sea level. The foothills (1800 –2000 m a.s.l) form a narrow strip running northeast to southwest, adjacent to the lower mountain range to the east. This region covers 8% of the country and supports high population densities subsistent on mixed crop and livestock systems. The Senqu River Valley (1500–1800 m a.s.l) is a major grassland area marked by shallow soils and suffers a rain shadow effect along the Senqu (Orange) river. The population in this region also depends largely on livestock and mixed farming. The mountains (2000–3482 m a.s.l.) form approximately two-thirds of the country and are primarily used for summer grazing transhumance practices. They also host some unique African alpine and sub-alpine habitats of the Drakensburg range (Marake, 1999)

The study was conducted in three locations (Figure 1):

1. the southern lowlands in the Mafeteng district which is a drought-prone area receiving on average 500–550 mm per annum at elevations below 1800 m above sea level;

2. the northern foothills of the Leribe district which is considered a breadbasket of Lesotho with average annual precipitation ranging between 700 and 800 mm per annum at elevations between 1500 and 1800 m above sea level; and

3. the upper Senqu River Valley (SRV) in the Thaba-Tseka district.

The SRV is a rain shadow landscape along the Senqu (Orange) River Basin and has average annual precipitation ranging from 400 to 450 mm per annum.

In this study, we adopted a qualitative research approach because of its power to examine human experiences through the descriptions they provide regarding the impacts of drought hazard, the coping strategies they have adopted and the utility of early warning information in the study area. This approach has been proven useful in various studies that sought to understand people’s perceptions of the subject under study (Kamara et al., 2020; Obioha, 2018). Furthermore, qualitative research provides insights that are difficult to produce with quantitative measures by providing detailed and in-depth descriptions of livelihood experiences (Kamara et al., 2020; Obioha, 2018 and Gephart, 2004). Data was collected in three sequential steps.

Data collection was based on primary research consisting of community and stakeholder consultations through focus group discussions (FGDs) and key informant interviews (KII). At the community level, a total of 48 FGDs were conducted with genderized groups: mixed elderly (60 years plus), mixed youth (18–35 years) and middle-aged men and women in separate groups (36–59 years). Categorization of participants was adopted to embrace the fact that group dynamics have synergistic effects on the generation of study outcomes which would have been missed with other methods (Palmer et al., 2010). Nine KII (local authorities, schoolteachers, wisemen and women in the community and sectoral leaders in the disaster risk reduction sub-sectors) were conducted to collect data on drought risks and impacts in July and ended August 2021. Each FGD consisted of 7–15 participants making a total of 563 drawn from existing socioeconomics groups which were distributed as youth (146), middle-aged women (144), middle-aged men (141) and the elderly (132). The FGDs and KII were essential in providing information on lived experiences regarding primary impacts on lives and livelihoods from previous drought events and documenting how these impacts have evolved. They also allowed gathering locally developed early actions that were deemed necessary to alleviate the hazardous impacts of drought on their lives and livelihoods.

In addition, three stakeholder consultations, one in each region with District Disaster Risk Management Teams (DDRMTs) were held at the district level. The DDRMTs are multi-sectoral, multi-disciplinary and multi-representative teams that are responsible for ensuring that district plans have considered disaster risk reduction and that EWSs which are established at the district level are linked to both national and community EWSs among others. There were 25 DDRMT members who were gathered in a workshop setting to give opinions on the impacts of drought and potential AA that could be taken cognizant of the livelihood activities in their respective districts. These teams have provided valuable information that validated the perceptions of communities on drought impacts and AA. Total number of respondents who participated in this study is 647.

During the focus groups and KIIs, we asked respondents about their livelihood activities, their experiences during historical drought events, the kind of weather or early warning information they receive and the kind of actions they have taken to prepare for drought events in the past. We also asked respondents about their opinions and wishes for future early warning information and the type of early action they would like to take in the future if they had warnings of drought events before they happen.

To gain a holistic understanding of what was said and to ensure that all important aspects of the data were captured, inductive data analysis was followed by engaging in detailed readings of data records, i.e. FGD notes, interview notes and transcripts. Key concepts and themes were identified using the research questions as the lens (Azungah, 2018). The study also utilised content analysis which entailed careful repetitive reading of qualitative data, searching across a data set to identify, analyse and report repeated patterns. This method was not only useful in describing data, but it also involved interpretation in the processes of selecting codes and constructing themes. It was adopted in this study specifically because of its appropriateness and power when seeking to understand a set of experiences, thoughts, or behaviours across a data set (Mehdipour et al., 2022). The researchers adhered to ethical considerations in pursuit of this research. The necessary ethical considerations to protect the participants adopted four-themed ethical deliberations of informed consent, deception, privacy and confidentiality. The consent forms were given to the participants who were allowed to read and sign if they approved their participation. Furthermore, the contents of the consent forms were read out truthfully to those who could not read, and approval was sought if they agreed to participate.

Limitations of the study

In any qualitative study, the researchers need to reflect on their positionality and how that may influence the research process and outcomes, as well as the general limitations of the research methods (Quandt, 2021). Given that the research team has worked with humanitarian organisations in the study area after which development interventions were implemented, this might have sometimes led to interviewees exaggerating the negative impacts of drought to perhaps convince the team to bring development assistance into the community. In contrast, others may have downplayed the impact and anticipatory actions they deem necessary because of a concern that many people from different institutions often come to ask questions but never give feedback or bring solutions to their problems. The use of a qualitative approach alone makes it difficult to observe the link between the lived experiences and quantified drought impacts.

Findings

Demographic characteristics of respondents

Table 1 presents the demographic characteristics of FGD respondents classified into different age groups of youth, middle-aged women, middle-aged men and the elderly.

Key livelihood activities.

Before exploring the views on the impacts of drought and potential AA, we documented the type and prevalence of different livelihoods in the regions of study. An analysis of local livelihoods is essential for a proper understanding of how these activities are affected by exposure to drought at the community level. In the study area, the potential users of early warning services and information are livestock farmers especially small stock (sheep and goats), nursery producers, crop farmers and/or households who have large individual and/or community orchards.

Informants in the FGDs shared key livelihood activities in their communities. The findings revealed that communities predominantly rely on mixed agriculture comprising crop and livestock production. The main crops produced in the area are cereals such as wheat, maize, sorghum and pulses such as beans and peas supplemented with potatoes. The livestock kept by the farmers in the area include cattle, sheep, goats, horses and donkeys. Apparently, agriculture is the dominant key livelihood activity followed by non-farm activities such as casual labour and petty trade that have recently become prevalent livelihood activities due to the continuous poor performance of agriculture in climate change conditions. For example, a middle-aged woman described the impacts of drought as follows:

We mainly engage in cropping, livestock rearing and gardening. However, chronic drought and diminishing rainfall have become the most significant manifestations of climate change in Lesotho that adversely affect agriculture. This has, therefore, given rise to the adoption of non-farm activities to sustain our lives in the event agriculture fails.

This comment was reiterated in different forms across the study area and corroborated across the gender categories including youth groups. The FGD participants conceptualised drought in terms of its negative impacts on people’s lives and livelihood activities. It is perceived as a shortage of water for domestic, irrigation and livestock use consequent to prolonged dry spells and abrupt end of rainy season. It is also described as relatively high temperatures that result in disease outbreaks, increased animal mortality and decreased crop production leading to food and nutrition insecurity. Middle-aged women from the FGD indicated that:

The worst drought periods in our recent memory were the years 2001/2002, 2015/2016 and 2018/2019. These drought years were characterised by the delayed onset of first rains with prolonged intra-seasonal dry spells and an abrupt end of the rainy season.

The foregoing information was corroborated by other FGD informants in the group and matched the memories of other members in different groups. The elderly people have experienced various drought episodes in their lives and were able to compare previous drought periods with the most recent episodes which are vivid in the memories of the youth. In one group of elderly, an elderly lady around 90 years old expressed that:

We have seen sudden stop of rains in the 20^th century, particularly in 1933, 1960 and 1992. My mother used to tell us about the big drought of 1933 and the associated hunger and food insecurity. I personally remember drought in the 1960s and 1992 – it was so dry that many fields were fallow, and people experienced food insecurity that led to widespread famine and starvation, and substantial loss of grazing and water resources.

Early warning early action for drought.

Participants indicated that they frequently receive weather forecasts daily after the radio news bulletin. Other commonly used channels for communicating weather forecasts include television, occasional messages through mobile phones, social media platforms originating from the Lesotho Meteorological Services and social messaging (word of mouth). However, participants stated that they do not receive early warning messages for drought. Instead, they receive early warning for snow and localised flash floods. Middle-aged women and youth were in consensus about the inadequacy of early warning communications:

We never receive early warning messages for drought ahead of the drought incidence. Instead, we observe the conditions and make decisions based on our intuition. We hear mainly on the radio that the country is experiencing drought while its impacts have already negatively affected us down in the communities.

The fact that people do not receive early warning messages for drought at least one growing season ahead, implies that they are unable to make informed decisions about their farming activities ahead of time. All FGD participants were asked what early actions they perceive essential to minimise the impacts of drought on their lives and livelihoods. They expressed that addressing climate change risks, particularly in agriculture, food and nutrition security, as well as water security is a critically urgent priority. Early actions suggested by the communities and validated by the DDRMT were:

Dissemination of early warning messages.

In this study, communities were asked both through key informant interviews and FGDs about the nature of early warning messaging they receive and their timeliness. They revealed that as a general norm, farmers and households generally do not integrate climate information in their decision-making but rather react to post-drought and other climatic hazards. In particular, the president of the Lesotho Wool and Mohair Association in an interview noted:

Small stock farmers are currently not using any information from weather forecasts and climate services. First, because traditionally, weather forecasts were not part of the extension messages and packages. Secondly, the forecasts currently lack useful advisory information.

The foregoing observation was corroborated through FGD with livestock farmers throughout the study area. Regardless of the reasons, this has already affected them negatively especially in terms of nutrition when drought negatively affects the rangeland conditions and livestock require supplementary feeding for which the farmers are often not prepared. In an FGD in Thaba-Tseka, one male farmer relayed a costly experience resulting from a lack of early warning messaging:

Early warning messages could have saved us the high mortality rates of sheep. A year or two ago, in the post-shearing periods of the late winter, the occurrence of heavy snowfall and cold fronts lowered the temperatures just as the animals left the shearing sheds resulting in high mortalities.

Other members of the FGD concurred that the experience is now recurring almost annually and attributed to climate change and raised other potential areas where farmers could take advantage of weather forecasts during the breeding period when a member of the group intimated as follows:

We could use early warning messages for decision-making in sheep and goat breeding and mating decision-making. For example, in the event of a drought forecast, the messaging could influence decisions as to how many ewes are served with rams so that we only mate a proportion of the stock commensurate to the availability of supplementary feeding by growing fodder and/or buying it.

There was consensus that such lead warning information would also allow them to choose mating options as to whether they use artificial insemination or not. The former would allow their sheep and goats to lamb within a defined period making it manageable to stall the animals, time the supplementary feed requirements and provide shelter against extreme weather elements. The foregoing needs are now obvious when the farmers are given information about the relevance of weather forecasts and climate services but were not hitherto considered in planning and decision-making by end users.

The study revealed that households and farmer associations get daily weather forecasting information through radio and television. However, they lamented the lack of extension information interpreting the information such that it could be used to inform specific decisions. In one FGD, a farmer observed:

The weather information communicated on radio or TV is often meaningless because it lacks the details or advisory messaging to influence our decision on the farm like making necessary preparations to move livestock and herdsmen in the cattle posts.

There was general consensus in the group that lack of tailor-made advisories does not allow them to make use of the information to gather and stockpile food and fuelwood that would sustain them for the period projected for the duration of the particular climatic hazard. Members of the poultry association also noted that they could use the warnings to protect their poultry from extreme temperature stress associated with drought conditions. Generally, the study showed that the daily weather forecasts are not providing adequate information for farm level decision-making. Thus, the provision of seasonal forecasts and long-term climate information predictions would be preferable. Moreover, an elderly farmer in the highlands of Thaba-Tseka said:

I prefer the messages to be communicated on radio because in my village almost everyone listens to Radio Lesotho throughout the day and early evening.

In the youth and middle age groups there was a preference for radio and social media channels because the youth and middle-aged have a higher participation in such channels especially in the lowlands. In one youth FGD a gentleman observed:

As youth, we spend most of our time on social media hence early warning messages can reach many people as they socialize on social media platforms.

Others concurred but recommended a mix of different communication channels through which early warning messages can be transferred like radios, televisions, short message services and social media platforms in addition to traditional physical contacts through public gatherings.

Drought impacts.

The notion of drought impacts is critical to the understanding of drought because it seeks to address how people internalise impacts on sources of livelihoods and the resultant ramifications into the livelihoods. For example, drought may determine the timeliness of farming operations. Often, the first attempt to mitigate the risk of drought is to delay planting with the hope that rains will come late. However, the result is that too often some farmers end up not planting at all. In either case, the potential risk is cropping failure which cascades to actual livelihood impacts such as loss of income and food insecurity. Among the most significant impacts of drought are socio-economic, productive and environmental impacts.

Of the socio-economic impacts, a sharp increase in the cost of basic goods such as food was reported to cause malnutrition in people who could not afford to buy food. The other aspect of health that was mentioned is the prevalence of diarrhoea which is common in children under five years of age consequent to multiple factors of unsafe drinking water and poor diet. It is clear from the quote that people experienced hunger and that had implications on their health. There were also incidences of conflicts over scarce water resources and vegetation for grazing livestock. A middle-aged woman in FGD in Mafeteng District in the Southern Lesotho explained:

We used to buy a head of cabbage at M25.00 and 12.5kg of maize meal at M120.00 during the 2015/16 drought. This was a huge difference from the norm and many households who could not afford it were forced to skip some meals and sometimes go be bed hungry.

The issue of price hikes in food prices was corroborated in the group and similar observations were made in others. On the other hand, the productive sector impacts revealed in the FGDs were decreased crop production, which is consistent with (Figures 2 and 3), disease outbreaks and animal mortality. Furthermore, the environmental impacts echoed was dryness of the general landscape. The other participant from FGD also shared as follows:

The 2015/2016 and 2018/2019 drought episodes caught us during the advent of growing season and many of us could not go farming. Hence, the fields were left fallow, those who planted did not get any harvest, our livestock emaciated and many died during heavy rains after prolonged dry spells. Agriculture has suffered the most and because many of us live by it, we were terribly affected.

The frequency and intensity of drought pose challenges for farming communities including poverty and hunger resulting from crop failure and livestock mortality.

An elderly participant from Thaba-Tseka District shared:

We used to get mesmerised by the sounds of running water down the streams and the singing birds in a green scenery. These are all history because of drought. The landscapes are dry and dilapidated and do not support crop production and livestock keeping especially because they exclusively depend on rangelands for grazing with no supplementary feeding.

Figures 1 and 2 corroborate the findings of FGD groups that during the past years when drought was experienced, crop production dropped drastically.

The findings of drought impact as perceived by participants are presented in Table 2. It shows a wide range of impacts associated with drought as has emerged from various FGDs and groups.

Coping strategies.

As expressed in FGD and KII, the popularly adopted mechanisms to cope with drought conditions include negative ones such as the sale of productive assets at give-away prices, reducing the number of meals and committing debts from unscrupulous money lenders. The more positive mechanisms include sharecropping, casual labour specifically as domestic workers and farm hands as well as income-generating activities including crafting. Incidentally, youth also migrate to the local urban areas or South Africa.

Clearly, communities seem to have adopted both positive and negative coping strategies. The negative or erosive coping strategies often exploit households’ resources and leave them with nothing for future use whilst positive mechanisms provide a temporary caution during drought events. It was further revealed by FGD and KII that humanitarian aid is required to support their coping strategies during drought. While other people perceive humanitarian aid as creating dependency syndrome, they are essential in contributing towards building resilience, especially on the most vulnerable groups of people.

Discussion

Drought impacts.

The opportunity to derive primary data on the impacts of drought is critical for the validation of existing literature because of its reliability, authenticity and objectivity (Kabir, 2016). Consistent with the Second National Strategic Development Plan (NSDP II) and other national strategic documents, agriculture is a major source of livelihood for over 80% of the population living in rural areas. The contribution of agriculture to the gross national product (GDP) from 2011 to 2021 has averaged 5 percent with a range 3.78–5.06 percent (BOS, 2021). However, its productivity performance has been declining over time leading to a reduction in its contribution to the GDP compared to services and industry and it remains one of the lowest-paying sectors now exposed to a variety of factors including climate change-induced hazards such as drought (Government of Lesotho, 2018). Efforts to improve agricultural productivity in the face of climate variability are essential given that many people depend on agriculture for survival. The findings further indicate that crop production is mainly subsistence although during a good harvest, there may be surpluses to sell or preserve especially fruits from household trees and orchards as well as vegetables from backyard and keyhole gardens. However, the production trends, especially for staple cereals fluctuate significantly with rainfall variability (BOS, 2018).

Rainfall observations corroborate the drought episodes reported by our respondents in the last 40 years (Kamara et al., 2020) highlighting a series of significant drought episodes: 1981–1984, 1990–1992, 2001–2003, 2006–2008, 2011–2013, 2015 / 16 and 2018 / 19. This is an important finding because it reconciles the memory of communities with the meteorological reality on record, a matter that is scarce in Lesotho given the deficit of analytic publications going beyond merely documenting the timeframes of drought and prescribing interventions. Cereal production was at its lowest point during the drought of 2015 / 2016 (BOS, 2018 and World Bank, 2019). The 2015 / 16 drought episode (BOS, 2018) was one of the worst in recent records and caused a serious disturbance in the agricultural production systems with many fields remaining fallow and few that were planted experiencing total crop failure.

Respondents in our study reported livestock deaths as a major concern during drought events. The analysis of narratives of people’s memories of recent drought episodes paints a picture of animals dying in large numbers. Although sheep and goats are mainly kept for wool and mohair agricultural export commodities, they have terribly suffered and this affirms the national statistics that show that farmers incur significant losses of livestock through mortality during drought years, 2015 / 16 and 2017 / 18 growing seasons (BOS, 2020) coincides with both recent memories of communities and meteorological records (WBG, 2021). However, our respondents indicated that, with sufficient advanced warning, they would be able to take actions that could mitigate livestock deaths during a drought, including reducing herd size before the drought begins.

Non-farm livelihood activities such as petty trade and daily wage employment are gaining popularity because of the downward spiralling agricultural production. As discussed in the literature, the decline in agricultural productivity caused by severe droughts has given rise to the adoption of off-farm activities as an alternative source of livelihood because subsistence agriculture has failed to ensure food security among rural households (Rantšo and Seboka, 2019).

The reported socio-economic impacts are associated with increases in the cost of basic goods and services, especially staple food items because communities entirely depend on rain-fed agriculture, which is directly affected by drought. These findings are supported by other research reports that drought curtails the availability of locally produced food in favour of costly food imports (Kamara et al., 2020). Incidentally, a large proportion of the population of Lesotho, especially in rural areas, relies on on-farm production for food and nutrition security. The impacts of drought on health mainly originate from inadequate food consumption and unsafe water sources leading to the risk of water borne diseases whilst exposing infants and unborn children to malnutrition (Carla et al., 2013). Community conflicts over water sources are also evident in areas where there is water scarcity. Interestingly, in the Thaba-Tseka district, communities reported incidences of mental illness associated with stress due to drought-induced decline in agricultural production. In one community, members emotionally cited some cases:

[…] we often have people who do not cope with the impacts of drought and suddenly go mad from the stress of failing to meet the dietary fibre needs of households’ members resulting from the ever-declining agricultural productivity.

Members continued that:

Drought imposes a lot of emotional demands on us resultant from failure to meet food and nutrition security of our households which has unpleasant ramifications including malnutrition which becomes common for children under five years of age, skin-related problems and other opportunistic diseases.

Consistent with this finding, Austin et al. (2018) found that farmers experience significant stress about the effects of drought on their families and communities at large and this suggests that early actions for drought are imperative in minimising such incidences and that medical practitioners who assist farmers and farming communities can contribute to initiatives that relieve stress about drought.

Recurrently drought-affected communities reflect the collective inability to withstand the changes driven by recurrent drought and climate change, which continuously weaken traditional safety nets and adaptive capacity. Consequently, a growing proportion of the rural populations, especially the youth, migrate to urban areas and South Africa with detrimental impacts on the social stability of communities as they become detached from their traditions and cultural institutions (Rantšo and Seboka, 2019).

Drought imposes a variety of environmental impacts especially the aridity effects manifested on vegetation, drying up of water bodies including streams and lakes and lowering of groundwater tables causing communities (Van Lanen and Peters, 2000) especially women in rural areas to fetch water further away from their normal water sources. In the southern lowlands and central mountains of Lesotho, farmers made a clear connection between low precipitation and the poor state of rangelands and total crop failure in drought years. Thus, it can be inferred that natural resource base supporting rural livelihoods is already degraded and continue to be under substantially more pressure as a result of the impact of climate change which is affecting catchment areas and rangelands and accelerating the loss of pastures and arable land due to worsening soil erosion.

Community copings strategies.

In the event agricultural production is adversely affected by the hazardous impacts of drought, which is often the case, communities seem to adopt both positive and negative coping mechanisms. The positive mechanisms among others include venturing in income-generating activities, destocking and sharecropping. Negative or erosive coping refers to a livelihood activity that in the long term is unsustainable and can have negative impacts on both people and the environment (Quandt, 2021). As a coping mechanism during drought, some community members sold productive assets such as livestock at extremely low prices. Other households reduced the number of meals that they normally take to cope with decreasing food supplies. In some families, household valuable assets are exchanged for food while others are forced to commit debts from scrupulous money lenders to purchase food. The elderly group also affirmed that borrowing and begging for food or maize meal from neighbours was evident when the Old Age Pension was stretched beyond the limit. These findings suggest that humanitarian support is crucial in supporting the communities in this time of need before matters go out of hand. There were also reports of forced school dropouts or child labour practices to make up for the costs of food demand in the household resulting in negative opportunity costs.

Early warning early action for drought.

According to the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR, 2009), an EWS represents a set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information that enables individuals and communities at risk to prepare and act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce harm or loss. In the context of Lesotho, the DMA with its structures at national and district levels, is the institution responsible for the dissemination of early warning messages. However, focus groups affirmed that they usually do not receive early warning messages about drought instead, they receive weather forecasts through various communication channels. Although the study mainly focussed on drought, focus groups indicated that they receive early warning messages about snow through the same communication channels. The disjuncture would be to ensure effective dissemination of drought early messages that are timely and easy to understand for end users to make informed decisions for operational drought. Considerations of effective delivery tools and the needs of different user communities are essential in informing specific applications. Thus, effective drought early messages to users should involve appropriate engagement and feedback between drought information providers and end users to aid the dissemination of such early action for decision-making (Hao et al., 2017).

Levine et al. (2020) stated that AA is a set of actions taken prior to the strike of crisis to prevent potential impacts on people’s lives and avert the destruction of livelihoods. The AA is regarded ideal when it has the best chance of helping the population at risk to reduce the negative impacts of an extreme event. There is evidence that government, humanitarian organisations and farmers are interested in taking AA to prevent drought effects before the event happens (De Wit, 2019).

We argue that the farming community must be capacitated to access, and understand the content of forecast through providing guidance based on weather impacts, not just weather patterns. Furthermore, there is a need to establish an agrometeorological service in the Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Nutrition to complete the climate information value chain from the Lesotho Meteorological Services and downscaling it for the agriculture sector users. Thus, the disjuncture would be that farming communities have access to climate information services (CIS). These services can potentially assist farmers in reducing unpredictability whilst taking advantage of favourable weather information by planting intensively, thereby minimising loss during unfavourable weather forecasts (Ouedraogo et al., 2018). Agrometeorological information must be provided through advisories and disseminated via various platforms (Masupha et al., 2021). For CIS to be effective, they require appropriate engagement to produce an advisory salient to the farmers’ needs to aid their decision-making under uncertainty whilst facilitating and guiding early action and preparedness (Tall et al., 2018). Timely access is, therefore, regarded as essential in assisting farmers to make proper farm decisions.

Conclusion

The diverse groups of people portray different experiences and perceptions of the negative impacts of drought on lives and livelihoods. However, food insecurity appears to be a major impact which is a result of crop failure and exacerbated by price hikes of food commodities. This underscores the importance of understanding their feelings and the reality in which they live and operate as it is paramount in addressing drought impacts. At the centre of minimising the impacts of drought is the dissemination of drought early warning messages which are considered imperative in assisting communities to make informed decisions regarding drought preparedness. While forecasts can provide information for early action before a drought happens, the dissemination and use of skilful drought forecasts are still in their infancy in the whole of Lesotho hence, the need to complete the climate information value chain from forecasting, and processing of data to information dissemination to users. However, Yuan and Wood (2013) affirmed that less than 30% of the drought onsets over global scales can be detected by climate forecasts. The difficulty in predicting the full aspects of drought onset, severity, development and recovery, especially for long lead time and under a changing environment still stands (Hao et al., 2018). Perhaps future research is still needed to help understand how farmers are coping and adapting with drought, and other climate-related stressors, in a variety of contexts to make context-specific and locally appropriate policy and project recommendations.

Figures

Figure 1.

Map of Lesotho

Figure 2.

Lesotho seasonal rainfall (Oct-Mar) 1960 / 1961–2019 / 2020

Figure 3.

Cereal production over five growing seasons

Table 1.

Distribution of demographic characteristics of FGD respondents

Mafeteng				Leribe				Thaba-Tseka
Youth 18–35 yrs				Youth 18–35 yrs				Youth 18–35 yrs				Total
FGD A	FGD B	FGD C	FGD D	FGD A	FGD B	FGD C	FGD D	FGD A	FGD B	FGD C	FGD D	FGD
8	11	7	14	9	14	15	12	14	15	13	14	146
Middle-aged women 36–59 yrs				Middle-aged women 36–59 yrs				Middle-aged women 36–59 yrs
FGD A	FGD B	FGD C	FGD D	FGD A	FGD B	FGD C	FGD D	FGD A	FGD B	FGD C	FGD D	FGD
10	12	11	9	15	15	13	10	10	13	15	11	144
Middle-aged men 36–59 yrs				Middle-aged men 36–59 yrs				Middle-aged men 36–59 yrs
FGD A	FGD B	FGD C	FGD D	FGD A	FGD B	FGD C	FGD D	FGD A	FGD B	FGD C	FGD D	FGD
14	10	7	8	13	14	14	15	13	12	14	7	141
Elderly 60 yrs and above				Elderly 60 yrs and above				Elderly 60 yrs and above
FGD A	FGD B	FGD C	FGD D	FGD A	FGD B	FGD C	FGD D	FGD A	FGD B	FGD C	FGD D	FGD
7	11	10	13	8	11	9	10	14	12	14	13	132
Total												647

Source: Authors’ own creation

Table 2.

Perceived impacts of drought on livelihoods

IMPACTS	Mafeteng				Leribe				Thaba-Tseka
	FGDA	FGDB	FGDC	FGDD	FGD A	FGD B	FGDC	FGDD	FGDA	FGD B	FGD C	FGD D
High livestock mortality	2, 3,4	2	2,3,4	2,3,4	2, 4	2,3,4	2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	4	1,2,3,4
Crop failure	1,2,3,4	1,3,4	3,4	2,3,4	3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	2,3,4	1,2,3,4	3,4	2,3,4	3,4
High livestock morbidity	1,2,3,4	2, 4	2,3,4	2,3,4	2,4	2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,4	1,2,3,4
Reduced area planted	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	2,3,4	2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	2,3,4	1,2,3,4	2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4
Crop pest/diseases	1,2,3,4	2,3	1,2,3	1,2,3	2,3,4	2,3	3,4	1,3,4	2,3	1,2,3	2,3	2,3
Food insecurity	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	2,3,4	2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4
Rangelands degradation	4	2,4	2,3,4	2,4	1,2,3,4	1,3,4	2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	2,3,4	1,2,3,4
Insufficient raw materials for handicrafts	5	5	5	5	3,4	3,4	2,3,4	5	1,2,3,4	1,2,34	1,3,4	1,2,3,4
Water pollution	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,3,4	1,3	1,2,3	5	5	5	5	1,3
Malnutrition	2,3	3	1,2,3,4	1,2,3	1,3,4	1,3	5	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,34
Water shortage	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	5	4	1,3,4	1,2,3	4	3,4	1,3,4	1,2,3,4
Conflicts on scarce natural resources	1,2,3,4	2,4	2,3,4	1,2,4	3	1,3	2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,4	5	4	1,2,3,4
Food price hike	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4	1,2,3,4
Child diarrhoea	2,3	1,2,3	1,2,3,4	1,2,3	1,3	5	5	3	1,3	1,2,3	5	3

Notes:

1: Youth; 2: Elderly; 3: Middle-aged women; 4: Middle-aged men; 5: No mention by all categories

Source: Authors’ own creation