Estimating a civil aircraft’s development cost with a GM(1, N ) model and an MLP neural network
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to study a new approach by combining a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) algorithm with a GM(1, N) model in order to estimate the development cost of a new type of aircraft.
Design/methodology/approach
First, data about developing costs and their influencing factors were collected for several types of Boeing and Airbus aircraft. Second, a GM(1, N) model was constructed to simulate development costs for a civil aircraft. Then, an MLPNN algorithm was added to optimize and revise the simulative and forecasting values. Finally, a combined approach, using both a GM(1, N) model and an MLPNN algorithm was adopted to forecast development costs for new civil aircraft.
Findings
The results show that the proposed approach could do the work of cost estimation for new types of aircraft. Rather than using a single model, the combined approach could improve simulative and forecasting accuracy.
Practical implications
Scientific cost estimation could improve management efficiency and promote the success of a new type of civil aircraft development. Considering that China’s civil aircraft research and development is at its very beginning stages, only very limited data could be collected. The development costs for civil aircraft are affected by a series of factors. The approach outlined by this paper could be applied to development cost estimations in China’s civil aircraft industry.
Originality/value
The paper has succeeded by constructing a cost estimation index system and proposing a novel combined cost estimation approach comprised of a GM(1, N) model and an MLPNN. It has undoubtedly contributed to improving the accuracy of cost estimations.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under grant No. 71671090, by the Aeronautical Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 2014ZG52077, by the Chinese Ministry of Education’s Liberal Arts and Social Sciences Foundation under Grant No. 15YJCZH189, by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under Grant No. NS2015083, and by the Qinglan Project for excellent youth or middle-aged academic leaders in Jiangsu Province (China).
Citation
Xie, N.-m., Yin, S.-M. and Hu, C.-Z. (2017), "Estimating a civil aircraft’s development cost with a GM(1,
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2017, Emerald Publishing Limited