Analysing and forecasting China containerized freight index with a hybrid decomposition–ensemble method based on EMD, grey wave and ARMA
Grey Systems: Theory and Application
ISSN: 2043-9377
Article publication date: 22 September 2020
Issue publication date: 18 June 2021
Abstract
Purpose
This paper applied grey wave forecasting in a decomposition–ensemble forecasting method for modelling the complex and non-linear features in time series data. This application aims to test the advantages of grey wave forecasting method in predicting time series with periodic fluctuations.
Design/methodology/approach
The decomposition–ensemble method combines empirical mode decomposition (EMD), component reconstruction technology and grey wave forecasting. More specifically, EMD is used to decompose time series data into different intrinsic mode function (IMF) components in the first step. Permutation entropy and the average of each IMF are checked for component reconstruction. Then the grey wave forecasting model or ARMA is used to predict each IMF according to the characters of each IMF.
Findings
In the empirical analysis, the China container freight index (CCFI) is applied in checking prediction performance. Using two different time periods, the results show that the proposed method performs better than random walk and ARMA in multi-step-ahead prediction.
Originality/value
The decomposition–ensemble method based on EMD and grey wave forecasting model expands the application area of the grey system theory and graphic forecasting method. Grey wave forecasting performs better for data set with periodic fluctuations. Forecasting CCFI assists practitioners in the shipping industry in decision-making.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant [number 71701127, 71803132 and 71971134]; Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China under Cruise Program Grant [number 2018-473].
Citation
Chen, Y., Liu, B. and Wang, T. (2021), "Analysing and forecasting China containerized freight index with a hybrid decomposition–ensemble method based on EMD, grey wave and ARMA", Grey Systems: Theory and Application, Vol. 11 No. 3, pp. 358-371. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-05-2020-0069
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
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