Prediction of provincial Digital Economy Development Index based on grey combination forecasting model

Abstract

Purpose

In many instances, the data exhibits periodic and trend characteristics. However, indices like the Digital Economy Development Index (DEDI), which pertains to science, technology, policy and economy, may occasionally display erratic behaviors due to external influences. Thus, to address the unique attributes of the digital economy, this study integrates the principle of information prioritization with nonlinear processing techniques to accurately forecast rapid and anomalous data.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed method utilizes the new information priority GM(1,1) model alongside an optimized BP neural network model achieved through the gradient descent technique (GD-BP). Initially, the provincial Digital Economic Development Index (DEDI) is derived using the entropy weight approach. Subsequently, the original GM(1,1) time response equation undergoes alteration of the initial value, and the time parameter is fine-tuned using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). Next, the GD-BP model addresses the residual error. Ultimately, the prediction outcome of the grey combination forecasting model (GCFM) is derived by merging the findings from both the NIPGM(1,1) model and the GD-BP approach.

Findings

Using the DEDI of Jiangsu Province as a case study, researchers demonstrate the effectiveness of the grey combination forecasting model. This model achieves a mean absolute percentage error of 0.33%, outperforming other forecasting methods.

Research limitations/implications

First of all, due to the limited data access, it is impossible to obtain a more comprehensive dataset related to the DEDI of Jiangsu Province. Secondly, according to the test results of the GCFM from 2011 to 2020 and the forecasting results from 2021 to 2023, it can be seen that the results of the GCFM are consistent with the actual development situation, but it cannot guarantee the correctness of the long-term forecasting, so the combination forecasting model is only suitable for short-term forecasting.

Originality/value

This article proposes a grey combination prediction model based on the principles of new information priority and nonlinear processing.

Citation

Xiong, P., Yang, J., Wei, J. and Shu, H. (2024), "Prediction of provincial Digital Economy Development Index based on grey combination forecasting model", Grey Systems: Theory and Application, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-04-2024-0051