Forecasting Chinese carbon emission intensity based on the interactive effect GM(1,N) power model
Grey Systems: Theory and Application
ISSN: 2043-9377
Article publication date: 11 October 2023
Issue publication date: 15 January 2024
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to predict China's carbon emission intensity and put forward a set of policy recommendations for further development of a low-carbon economy in China.
Design/methodology/approach
In this paper, the Interaction Effect Grey Power Model of N Variables (IEGPM(1,N)) is developed, and the Dragonfly algorithm (DA) is used to select the best power index for the model. Specific model construction methods and rigorous mathematical proofs are given. In order to verify the applicability and validity, this paper compares the model with the traditional grey model and simulates the carbon emission intensity of China from 2014 to 2021. In addition, the new model is used to predict the carbon emission intensity of China from 2022 to 2025, which can provide a reference for the 14th Five-Year Plan to develop a scientific emission reduction path.
Findings
The results show that if the Chinese government does not take effective policy measures in the future, carbon emission intensity will not achieve the set goals. The IEGPM(1,N) model also provides reliable results and works well in simulation and prediction.
Originality/value
The paper considers the nonlinear and interactive effect of input variables in the system's behavior and proposes an improved grey multivariable model, which fills the gap in previous studies.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The research reported in this paper was partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71871106) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Nos. JUSRP1809ZD; 2019JDZD06; JUSRP321016). the Key Project of Philosophy and Social Science Research in Universities of Jiangsu Province (No. 2018SJZDI051); the Major Projects of Philosophy and Social Science Research of Guizhou Province (No. 21GZZB32); Project of Chinese Academic Degrees and Graduate Education (No. 2020ZDB2); Major research project of the 14th Five-Year Plan for Higher Education Scientific Research of Jiangsu Higher Education Association (No. ZDGG02).
Citation
Wang, Y. and Si, Q. (2024), "Forecasting Chinese carbon emission intensity based on the interactive effect GM(1,N) power model", Grey Systems: Theory and Application, Vol. 14 No. 1, pp. 21-48. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-02-2023-0015
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited