Review of mid- and long-term predictions of China's grain security

Abstract

Purpose

This paper analyzes the factors that potentially affect grain security in China and reviews the techniques used for prediction. It reviews and compares forecasts for grain security in 2020 and 2030 with the aim of making some judgments, from the perspective of grain supply and demand, about the future grain security situation in China.

Design/methodology/approach

In this article, the paper will introduce the methods and results of the forecast and also focus on the predictions for grain security in 2020 and 2030 in order to give a clear review of previous researches in this regard.

Findings

The results indicate that the traditional threats to food supply and demand in China still exist, while demand for biomass energy continues to rise. With regard to grain aggregate, the grain supply-demand balance will still be relatively tight for both 2020 and 2030. In terms of structure, grain for feed will experience increase – mainly driven by the supply of corn – adding to the unabated structural issues confronting regional grain supply and demand. In the future, therefore, China should try to preserve favorable factors that increase grain production, optimize grain structure and production, maintain the proper scale and make-up of grain imports and exports, and work for a sound global trading environment for grain.

Originality/value

This article contributes to existing literature by analyzing the factors affecting grain security in China and reviewing prediction techniques and forecasts for grain security in China in 2020 and 2030. The findings suggest that China needs to take appropriate measures to ensure future grain security.

Citation

Lv, X. (2013), "Review of mid- and long-term predictions of China's grain security", China Agricultural Economic Review, Vol. 5 No. 4, pp. 567-582. https://doi.org/10.1108/CAER-05-2013-0086