New Dawn or Prolonged Eclipse? Upcoming RTAs and India's Automotive Exports

Abstract

One of the major objectives of India's National Auto Policy (NAP) (2018) is to help the country emerge as a hub for automotive production and research and development (R&D). In order to fulfill this long-term objective, two policies had been proposed by NAP (2018). First, possibility of exploring regional trade agreements (RTAs) with leading countries, having attractive markets for Indian players, was considered. Second, the policy aimed to evaluate the potential implications of joining the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) WP.29 1958 agreement within the next 5 years for tackling the potential major technical barriers to trade (TBT), as India's current accession in UNECE WP.29 1998 agreement may not be sufficient for ensuring mutual recognition of standards in many of the partner countries. India is presently engaged in RTA negotiations with several developed and developing countries, with potentially beneficial repercussions for automobile exports. However, the question of accession to UNECE WP.29 1958 agreement has not received similar attention of late, which may restrain the anticipated sectoral export growth, particularly through RTA-led market access outcomes. Given this background, the current analysis considers India's potential sectoral trade growth with eight partner countries, in the case of RTA-led tariff reforms, through a WITS-SMART simulation exercise. The obtained simulation results indicate that India needs to focus on the technical standard harmonization question for reaping the full benefits arising from tariff reforms in several upcoming RTAs, for boosting auto-exports in the post-RTA period.

Citation

Chakraborty, D. and Bhardwaj, R. (2024), "New Dawn or Prolonged Eclipse? Upcoming RTAs and India's Automotive Exports", Bhattacharyya, R. and Mazumdar, D. (Ed.) Contemporary Issues in International Trade, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 63-79. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83797-320-020241005