Aluminium

, 180, 188

American Dream

, 97

American economic figures

, 19

Analysts

, 11–12, 215

Anchoring

, 220

heuristic

, 220

Aruoba Diebold Scotty Index

, 179

Asset-backed securities (ABS)

, 213

Attribution fallacy

, 223–224

Automatic data Processing (ADP)

, 67

Average weekly hours (WEEKHOURS)

, 72

Aversion of ambiguity

, 219–220

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

, 188

Behavioural anomalies

, 217–218

Behavioural finance

, 217–218

Behavioural science

, 210

Belgian business confidence (BELUNT)

, 155, 158

Belgian consumer confidence (BELVERB)

, 157

Belgian economy

, 155

Belgian stock index (BEL20)

, 155

Big picture

, 227

Bloomberg (news agencies)

, 6–7

Boom

, 143–144

Building permits (BUIPERMITS)

, 101

Bureau of Economic Analysis

, 23, 27

Business

cycle analysis

, 10–11, 227

equipment

, 168

survey

, 51, 199

Buying conditions for houses (BCH)

, 211

Caixin Media

, 130

Caixin PMI (CNMARKIT)

, 130–132

Caixin services index

, 131

Capacity utilisation (CAPACITY)

, 75

Cass Information Systems

, 192

Central bankers

, 11

Certainty effect

, 222–223

China

, 122–132

economic indicators over months

, 120

GDP

, 119, 124

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)

, 127

PMI

, 128

Chinese M2 money supply growth (CNMS2YOY)

, 128

Chinese money supply growth

, 123

Chinese PMI

, 119

Chinese price figures

, 122

Climate crisis

, 186–187

Cognitive dissonance

, 224

Coinage metals

, 185

Collateralised debt obligations (CDOs)

, 213

Commitment

, 224

Commodity prices as special market indicators

, 184–188

CPI components and indicative indicators

, 194

important leading indicators of economic activity

, 188

Composite sentiment surveys

, 125

Conference Board

, 95

Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI)

, 177

Conference Board^® Consumer Confidence^®

, 86, 89, 91, 95, 201

Consensus estimates

, 6–7

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

, 115, 189

Consumer prices

, 106

Consumer sector

, 201

Consumer surveys

, 91–97

Control group

, 82–83

Control illusion

, 223–224

Core CPI rate

, 107

Corona crisis

, 19

COVID-19 pandemic

, 159

Credit card

, 213

Decision theory

, 210

Decision-making, problems in

, 220–221

Detection

, 197

Deutsche Bundesbank

, 141

Diffusion index

, 29–30, 37, 48, 143

Dissonance, avoidance of

, 224

Distribution system

, 213

Downswing

, 143–144

Duncan Leading Indicator

, 203

Durables

, 76

Economic cycle analysis

cognitive problems in economics

, 3

forecasts

, 6–7

sense and purpose of market analysis

, 4–5

shortcomings in research

, 4

Economic indicators

, 173

business cycle analysis

, 10–11

challenge interdependencies

, 9–10

dominance of US Data

, 13–16

future

, 10

‘good’ business cycle indicator as signaller

, 13

leading indicators

, 11–13

Economic sentiment (EMUSENT)

, 156–157

Economics

, 3

analysis

, 9–11, 228

cognitive problems in

, 3

data

, 13, 176, 179

phases

, 143–144

research institutes

, 3

Economists

, 3, 10–12, 163

Empire State Survey

, 41–42, 46

Endogenous variables

, 13

Energy prices

, 180

Equipment

, 168

European consumer confidence (EMUVSENT)

, 157–158

European economy

, 139

European GDP growth

, 140

European industrial confidence (EMUISENT)

, 158

European sentiment (EMUSENT)

, 156

European services confidence (EMUDSENT)

, 158

European Stoxx50 (EUSX50)

, 149–150

European ZEW economic expectations (EUZEWERW)

, 149–150

EuroStoxx 50 (EUSX50)

, 155

Eurosystem

, 141

Eurozone crisis

, 139–140

Exchange rates (EUR)

, 153

Excursus GDP Nowcast

, 27–28

Extensive analysis

, 214

Federal Reserve

, 200

Federal Reserve Bank

, 43

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

, 27

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

, 27

Financial analysts

, 223–224

Financial markets

, 185–186

analysis

, 11, 227

assessment of gains and losses

, 221–223

avoidance of dissonance

, 224

control illusion

, 223–224

information perception

, 218–221

information processing

, 219–220

macroeconomic implications

, 224–225

participants

, 141

problems in decision-making

, 220–221

psychological needs

, 223–224

rise and fall of parties

, 225–226

Footfalls

, 86, 93, 95–96

Forecasting

, 31

ADP employment

, 69

models

, 149–150

Forecasts

, 6–7

Freight Expenditure Index

, 192

Fundamental analysis

, 210

Gains, assessment of

, 221–223

Gambler’s fallacy

, 221

Geopolitics

, 180

German Bunds

, 197–198

German Consumer Prices

, 106

German GDP

, 140

German icon consumer confidence (DICON)

, 157

German ifo business climate index (DIFOBUS)

, 158

German stock market

, 149–150

German ZEW current situation (DZEWGEG)

, 158

Germany

, 137–154

economic data

, 137

GDP

, 139

Global financial markets

, 123

Golden Week

, 123

Good business cycle indicator as signaller

, 13

criteria for relevance of business cycle indicators

, 14

Governments

, 3

Great Recession

, 134

Gross domestic product (GDP)

, 23

components

, 167

deflator

, 116

growth

, 11–12, 28, 125, 128, 141

Headline index

, 30, 37

HIS Markit^® surveys

, 89

Hoarding purchases

, 109–110

Home ownership

, 97

Homogeneous credit claims

, 213

Hourly earnings (HOUREARN)

, 59, 61, 88

Housing acquisition

, 210–211

Housing market, special features of

, 210–211

Housing starts

, 101

HR services

, 67

ifo Business Climate Index

, 142, 144–145, 148, 158

Ifo business cycle clock

, 143–144

Ifo index

, 143

IHS Markit^® PMI Manufacturing (MARKITPMI)

, 37

Import prices (IMPPRICES)

, 107–108, 112

Income

, 87–88

Indicators

commodity prices as special market indicators

, 184–188

economic data

, 176–179

market indicators

, 180–182

medium and long-term inflation estimates

, 189–194

for real estate market

, 211

sentiment surveys

, 174

Industrial enterprises

, 135

Industrial production

, 70, 125

Inflation

, 55

rate

, 106

Information perception

, 218–221

Interest rates

, 11–12, 180

Intermediaries

, 212–213

Internet

, 219–220

Inundate financial market participants

, 219–220

Inventory investments

, 170

Inverse yield curve

, 197

Inversion of yield curve

, 197–198

Investors

, 221–222

ISM price component (ISMPRC)

, 111–112

ISM^® PMI Non-Manufacturing (ISMNPRC)

, 107–108

ISM^® PMI

, 34, 48, 149–150

Manufacturing

, 25–26, 29

Service PMI

, 25–26, 34, 36

surveys

, 29–30, 89

Japan

, 133–135

daily schedule of publications of economic data

, 121

GDP growth

, 119, 134

Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

, 52, 67

Labour market

, 43, 51, 199–200

manufacturing

, 72–81

Lagging indicators

, 13

Langer Consumer Comfort® (COMFCOMF)

, 89, 91, 94

Law of large numbers

, 221

Leading indicators

, 13

Li Kequiang Index

, 122

LMEX commodity index

, 128

Lockdowns

, 92, 95

Long-term inflation estimates

, 189–194

Losses, assessment of

, 221–223

Macro data

, 105–108

Macroeconomics

people

, 9

variables

, 68, 180

Manufacturing employment (MANPAYR)

, 72

Market analysis, sense and purpose of

, 4–5

Market capitalisation

, 133

Market data

, 153

Market Impetus

China

, 122–132

Japan

, 133–135

Market indicators

, 180–182

Market News International Chicago PMI (MNI Chicago PMI)

, 48

Market participants

, 135

Market relevance

, 13

Mass phenomena

, 180–181

Media

, 219–220

Medium inflation estimates

, 189–194

Michigan Index (MICHIGAN)

, 91

Mortgage loans

, 213

Motor vehicle loans

, 213

Munich-based Institute for Economic Research surveys

, 142

National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)

, 97, 99, 211

National Association of Purchasing Managers (NAPM PMI)

, 29, 34

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

, 25, 195–196

National economy

, 3

National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB Index)

, 39, 41–42

National ISM^® PMI

, 43

Natural disasters

, 71

Net exports

, 171

Neuer Markt

, 221

New York Empire State Survey (EMPIRE)

, 34, 47, 59, 174

News agencies

, 6–7

Non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU)

, 55

Non-farm payrolls (NFP_T)

, 52, 54

Oil price

, 72, 153

Pandemic

, 28, 109

Participation rate

, 57

Parties

, 217

growth and disintegration of parties

, 226

rise and fall of

, 225–226

Payroll

, 67

PCE deflator (PCEDEFL)

, 113, 115

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)

, 86

Personal income

, 87–88

Philadelphia Fed

, 31, 40–43, 44–45, 48, 72

Prices

, 109–118

paid

, 31

trends

, 189

Private consumption

, 82, 90

Private stocks

, 84–85

Probability theory

, 210

Producer prices

, 110–111

Property market data, relationships between sentiment indicators and

, 215–216

Prospect Theory

, 221–223

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

, 127

Quantitative data analyses

, 228

Quantitative easing (QE)

, 198

Quarterly GDP growth

equipment and software investment

, 168

government spending

, 172

inventory investments

, 170

net exports

, 171

private consumption

, 165–166

relevant indicators for GDP growth contributions

, 172

residential investment

, 169

structures

, 167

Radio

, 219–220

Real estate

, 211

importance of

, 212–213

Real estate market

, 25–26, 98, 105, 212

indicators for

, 211

macro data

, 105–108

prices

, 109–118

relationships between sentiment and real estate market prices

, 214

Real-time trackers

, 19, 148, 151, 159

Recession

, 143–144, 195–196

business survey

, 199

consumer sector

, 201

Duncan leading indicator

, 203

indications of

, 196

inversion of yield curve

, 197–198

labour market

, 199–200

leading indicator

, 204–205

selection of indicators for recession

, 197

trigger of recession using example of subprime crisis

, 212–213

Reference point

, 221–222

Reflection effect

, 221–222

Regression models

, 13, 52

Replacement investments

, 28

Representativeness

, 220–221

heuristic

, 220

Residential investment

, 97, 169

Retail sales

, 81–82, 125

Reuters (news agencies)

, 6–7

Richmond Fed (RICHMOND)

, 34

S&P500 Department Stores (S5DEPT)

, 83

S&P500 stock market index (SP500)

, 91, 204–205

Sahm rule

, 200

Scepticism

, 197–198

Second-rank mortgage loans

, 213

Self-overestimation

, 223–224

Sentiment indicators

, 214, 228

and property market data, relationships between

, 215–216

Sentiment surveys

, 126, 148, 174

importance of real estate

, 212–213

indicators for real estate market

, 211

relationships between sentiment and real estate market prices

, 214

relationships between sentiment indicators and property market data

, 215–216

special features of housing market

, 210–211

Sentix survey

, 137, 144

Shipments Durables Transport

, 168

Shop Till You Drop (motto)

, 165

Silver

, 186

Software investment, equipment and

, 168

Southern euro countries

, 139–140

Special market indicators, commodity prices as

, 184–188

Stock indices (DAX)

, 153

Stock market

, 204–205

capitalisation

, 140

Subordination

, 213

Subprime crisis, trigger of recession using example of

, 212–213

Subprime loans

, 212–213

Sunk cost effect

, 222

Super-cycles

, 186

Superstition

, 219

Surveys

, 68

participants

, 130–131

Tankan index

, 119

Tankan survey

, 133, 135

Technical recession

, 195

Technologies

, 219–220

Telephone

, 219–220

Television

, 219–220

3M-Euribor (3MEURIBOR)

, 149–150

Trade balance (TRADEBAL)

, 106

Unemployment rate (UNEMPLRATE)

, 57–58, 64

University of Michigan

, 89, 94, 101

Consumer Confidence Survey

, 90

Upswing

, 143–144

USA

consumer surveys

, 91–97

daily schedule of US economic data releases

, 22

excursus GDP Nowcast

, 27–28

labour market

, 43–51

monthly schedule of US economic data releases

, 21

overview of US economic data by segment

, 20

private consumption

, 82–90

procedure

, 19–26

real estate market

, 98–105

US GDP Growth Release Dates

, 24

Vulnerability

, 196

WARD’s Automotive Group (WARD)

, 72

Waterfall principle

, 213

Weekly activity index (WAI)

, 140–141

Weekly hours (WEEKHOURS)

, 64, 88

Yield curve, inversion of

, 197–198

ZEW

components

, 145

economic expectations

, 151

indices

, 149, 151

survey

, 137, 144, 149–150