Relations Between the Great War and Wheat Prices: An Analysis from the Ottoman Empire Perspective

Abstract

Introduction: It is commonly observed that the ratio of food prices during the war times had become significantly more important than usual periods within the countries including Turkey, known as the Ottoman Empire that previously defeated in Balkans just before the Great World War. The scope of the study is to analyze increased or decreased wheat prices together with price fluctuations during the war period.

Aim: This study investigates the food pricing progress during The Great World War and its relationship with wheat prices.

Method: A model for the behavior of time series is applied to compare the important days of the war data against the timeline of wheat prices for British, German, and French. The statistical test named Holt–Winters uses exponential smoothing technique to encode the various values from the past and predicts “typical” values for the present and the future.

Findings: As a result, it can be said that wheat prices had anomaly patterns during the specific dates in war for French, British, and German sides. Great Britain’s wheat prices increased significantly on April 1915 when landings began on the Gallipoli Peninsula. Wheat prices in Great Britain and Germany dropped significantly just before on July 1916 when the first Battle of the Somme began. However, it increased in Great Britain whilst decreased considerably in Germany in March 1918 when the Soviet Government signed a separate peace agreement with the Central Powers. A significant increase for France was observed only at the end of this war.

Citation

Tufan, E., Savaş, T. and Atabay, M. (2021), "Relations Between the Great War and Wheat Prices: An Analysis from the Ottoman Empire Perspective", Özen, E., Grima, S. and Gonzi, R.D. (Ed.) New Challenges for Future Sustainability and Wellbeing (Emerald Studies in Finance, Insurance, and Risk Management), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 119-131. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-80043-968-920211007