Modeling Regional Economic Growth in Russia

Abstract

The purpose of the work is to model disproportions in development of regional economy of Russia and to determine perspectives and recommendations for overcoming them and achieving the balance of the economy. The applied methods are based on Popkova's methodology of calculation of “underdevelopment whirlpools,” which allows conducting dynamic modeling of disproportions in development of regional economy. The research is performed in three consecutive stages. At the first stage, the dynamic model of development of the Russia's regional economy is compiled with the help of the methodology of “underdevelopment whirlpools” in federal districts of the Russian Federation based on GDP per capita. At the second stage, the key factors of emergence of disproportions in development of the Russia's regional economy are determined and models of multiple regression of development of the Russia's regional economy are compiled. At the third stage, target parameters of the determined factors are set for reducing the “underdevelopment whirlpools” in the Russia's regional economy by automatized solution of the optimization task with application of the simplex method and recommendations for overcoming the disproportions in development of the Russia's regional economy are compiled. As a result, it is concluded that regional economy of Russia is not well-balanced, as it has deep structural disproportions. These disproportions are caused by insufficient attention to peculiarities of regional economic systems during development and implementation of regional strategies of state management of economy. For more precise accounting of the influence of the key factors of appearance of disproportions and highly-effective management of them for overcoming the “underdevelopment whirlpools,” the algorithm of overcoming the disproportions in development of the Russia's regional economy is developed by the authors, which envisages various managerial measures depending on peculiarities of each Russian region.

Citation

Popkova, E.G. and Bogoviz, A.V. (2019), "Modeling Regional Economic Growth in Russia", Sergi, B.S. (Ed.) Tech, Smart Cities, and Regional Development in Contemporary Russia, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 119-150. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-78973-881-020191009