Prelims
Real Time Strategy: When Strategic Foresight Meets Artificial Intelligence
ISBN: 978-1-78756-812-9, eISBN: 978-1-78756-811-2
Publication date: 29 April 2020
Citation
Schühly, A., Becker, F. and Klein, F. (2020), "Prelims", Real Time Strategy: When Strategic Foresight Meets Artificial Intelligence, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. i-x. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-78756-811-220201001
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2020 Emerald Publishing Limited
Half Title Page
Real Time Strategy: When Strategic Foresight Meets Artificial Intelligence
Title Page
Real Time Strategy: When Strategic Foresight Meets Artificial Intelligence
By
Andreas Schühly
Frank Becker
Florian Klein
United Kingdom – North America – Japan – India – Malaysia – China
Copyright Page
Emerald Publishing Limited
Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley BD16 1WA, UK
First edition 2020
Copyright © 2020 by Emerald Publishing Limited
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
ISBN: 978-1-78756-812-9 (Print)
ISBN: 978-1-78756-811-2 (Online)
ISBN: 978-1-78756-813-6 (Epub)
Dedication Page
To all our colleagues who contributed to this book. You give us the means to take the long view.
– Kudos to Maximiliane Brecht, Nadine Manger, and Niclas Vieten for their critical reviews and input along our journey.
And to our family and friends. You give us the reasons to take the long view.
Special thanks to Alina, Christine, and Paloma for their continuous support and patience.
– Andreas, Frank, and Florian
Contents
| List of Tables and Figures | x | ||
| An Initial Reflection | 1 | ||
| 1. | Three Cheers to Uncertainty | 3 | |
| The Trap of Static Strategy | 5 | ||
| Towards Dynamic Strategic Thinking | 7 | ||
| Dimensions of Dynamic Strategy | 12 | ||
| Clarity: Take the Long View | 13 | ||
| Validity: Embrace Uncertainty and Manage Complexity | 17 | ||
| Relevance: Execute with Purpose | 19 | ||
| 2. | The Validity of Traditional Scenario Planning | 23 | |
| What Are Scenarios? | 23 | ||
| How Scenarios Differ from Predicting or Forecasting the Future | 31 | ||
| A Short History of Scenario Planning | 37 | ||
| Scenario Planning Application | 46 | ||
| Guidelines for Designing Scenarios | 52 | ||
| The Long View | 53 | ||
| Outside-in Thinking | 54 | ||
| Plausibility | 55 | ||
| Holistic View | 56 | ||
| Embrace Uncertainty | 56 | ||
| Zoom-out, Zoom-in | 57 | ||
| Machine Objectivity Meets Human Intuition | 57 | ||
| Number of Scenarios | 58 | ||
| Scenario Team | 59 | ||
| 3. | The Traditional Scenario Planning Process | 67 | |
| Focal Question | 68 | ||
| Driving Forces | 72 | ||
| Critical Uncertainties | 76 | ||
| Scenario Framework | 83 | ||
| Scenario Narratives | 84 | ||
| Implications and Options | 93 | ||
| Monitoring Scenarios with Cutting-edge Technology | 97 | ||
| 4. | How the Scenario Process Is Changing | 103 | |
| Crowdsourcing Ideas and AI-Generated Insights | 103 | ||
| Democratising Scenario Processes | 105 | ||
| Speeding Up the Scenario Process | 106 | ||
| New Ways of Telling Stories | 106 | ||
| 5. | Superpower for Strategists | 111 | |
| The Secret of Strategic Success – and Failure | 114 | ||
| The Original Strength of Strategists | 116 | ||
| Our True Enemies | 124 | ||
| Enemy No. 1: Complexity | 124 | ||
| Enemy No. 2: Adaptiveness | 133 | ||
| Attempts to Protect Against the Enemies | 139 | ||
| Our Ultimate Superpower Against our Strongest Enemies | 143 | ||
| From Fiction to Science to Strategy | 145 | ||
| 6. | Real-time Scenario Modelling | 153 | |
| How AI Can Augment the Research Stage | 154 | ||
| Focal Question | 154 | ||
| Driving Forces | 154 | ||
| How AI Can Augment the Modelling Stage | 156 | ||
| Critical Uncertainties | 156 | ||
| Scenario Framework | 158 | ||
| Scenario Narratives | 158 | ||
| How AI Can augment the Monitoring Stage | 159 | ||
| Scenario Monitoring | 159 | ||
| Scenario Health | 161 | ||
| 7. | Closing Perspectives | 165 | |
| Perspective 1: Storytelling in a Data-driven World | 166 | ||
| Uncertainty Is a Given, But How Do We Master It? | 167 | ||
| Strategy Is About Hard Facts – Really? | 168 | ||
| Strategy Beyond Ethics | 170 | ||
| Maintain the Doubt | 171 | ||
| Narratives Remain Valid in Strategy | 171 | ||
| Perspective 2: The Future of Collective Sense-making | 172 | ||
| A Forced Upgrade to Collective Thinking | 173 | ||
| The Stakes Could Not Be Higher | 175 | ||
| Perspective 3: A Decision-Making Utopia | 176 | ||
| A Story of Storytelling | 176 | ||
| There Are No Simple Answers to Interesting Challenges | 178 | ||
| Proposal for a New Decision-Making Culture | 182 | ||
| References | 185 | ||
| Index | 195 | ||
List of Tables and Figures
| Table 1. Comparison Forecasts, Predictions, and Scenarios. | 36 |
| Fig. 1. Timeline of Scenario Planning. | 37 |
| Fig. 2. Usage of Management Tools. | 46 |
| Fig. 3. Environmental Onion. | 54 |
| Fig. 4. The Scenario Process. | 68 |
| Fig. 5. Impact-Uncertainty Grid. | 81 |
| Fig. 6. Time, Non-strategic, and Strategic Goals. | 118 |
| Fig. 7. The Complexity Wall. | 126 |
| Fig. 8. The Adaptiveness Wall. | 133 |
| Fig. 9. Dynamic Scenario Modelling. | 143 |
| Fig. 10. Scenario Planning in Combination with AI. | 144 |