Expected Scenarios of Development of Information Economy in the Global Economic System

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this chapter is to compile the expected scenarios of development of information economy in the global economic system, determine the role of scenario that envisages practical implementation of the new model of a well-balanced information economy among these scenarios according to the criterion of effectiveness and probability, and select and substantiate the optimal scenario.

Methodology

Due to the absence of initial statistical information that allows characterizing the basic conditions for further development of information economy in the global economic system, the method of stochastic modeling is used for describing forecast scenarios in this chapter. This method is used due to its applicability for forecast analysis in the conditions of uncertainty. With the help of this method, qualitative description of the expected scenarios of development of information economy in the global economic system is accompanied by selected quantitative characteristics, which are conventional, that is, they are given for comparing various scenarios, not for specifying a precise value of estimate indicators. Comparison of the expected scenarios of development of information economy in the global economic system is conducted using comparative analysis method.

Results

It is concluded that the most effective and optimal scenario is the one that supposes implementation of the offered new model of a well-balanced information economy – despite its lower probability as compared to the other scenarios.

Recommendations

The set optimal expected scenario of development of information economy, which envisages application of its new well-balanced model, is recommended for practical implementation in the modern economic systems.

Citation

Bogoviz, A.V., Savinskaya, D.N., Kumratova, A.M., Fonina, T.B. and Ibragimov, N.M. (2018), "Expected Scenarios of Development of Information Economy in the Global Economic System", Sukhodolov, A.P., Popkova, E.G. and Litvinova, T.N. (Ed.) Models of Modern Information Economy, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 303-312. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-78756-287-520181031