Research on early warning system for antidumping petition: based on panel data logit model

Abstract

Purpose

Based on the American antidumping cases against China, the purpose of this paper is to construct an early warning model for Chinese exports.

Design/methodology/approach

In order to overcome the drawbacks of the existing early warning models for antidumping, first, the authors screen out six most relevant indices that play a key role in US textile corporations' decision of antidumping petition against China from 2002 to 2006, then design a early warning system for antidumping petition based on panel data logit model.

Findings

The regression result indicates that unemployment ratio and import‐penetration ratio significantly influence the antidumping filing decisions; when the other invariables keep the same, with the market share of China textile goods increasing by 1 per cent point, the odds ratio of antidumping petitions against China textiles increases by about 3.7 per cent.

Originality/value

As far as the authors are aware there is no definite research yet about early warning system of antidumping events, and this paper aims to specifically address this issue.

Citation

Xiang, H., Zongxian, F. and Xuyuan, L. (2011), "Research on early warning system for antidumping petition: based on panel data logit model", Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Vol. 4 No. 3, pp. 158-172. https://doi.org/10.1108/17544401111178203