Foresight for the semiconductor industry in Taiwan

Abstract

Purpose

This paper explores the possible future business environment, industrial structure, technological transformation, and market for the semiconductor industry in Taiwan.

Design/methodology/approach

This study applies the Delphi method to predict future trends in Taiwan's semiconductor industry in 2015.

Findings

The significant findings are as follows: the future business environment will focus on “industrial internationalization” and “strategic alliance”, and roughly half of Taiwan's production will move to China by 2015; the disintegrated model in Taiwan's semiconductor industry will still remain by 2015 and will require some adjustments, whereas the foundry service in Taiwan will retain its dominance globally; future core technologies in 2015 will comprise low voltage manufacturing (CMOS), High K, nanotechnology processes, and copper interconnection processes; the estimated value of IC industrial production for 2005 was US$32.1 billion, and will be US$61.0 billion in 2010 and US$108.8 billion in 2015.

Originality/value

This research can be utilized as a reference for government, academics, industry, and international investors.

Citation

Yuan, B.J.C., Chih‐Hung Hsieh, J. and Wang, C. (2006), "Foresight for the semiconductor industry in Taiwan", Foresight, Vol. 8 No. 5, pp. 45-55. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680610703081