Prediction of China's energy consumption structure

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to attempt to analyze the situation and trend of China's energy consumption structure and predict it.

Design/methodology/approach

Starting from the situation of China's energy consumption structure, a quadratic programming model is created to analyze the trend of it. A homogeneous Markov chain is chosen to predict China's energy consumption structure with the data collected from China's Statistical Yearbook. Finally, the implication of the prediction is explained.

Findings

The results are convincing: the substitution of different energies are found, China will not enter the oil era, natural gas and non‐fossil energy will rapidly develop.

Practical implications

The results of this article can provide an important basis for the government to make a non‐fossil energy development plan and energy policies.

Originality/value

The paper succeeds in revealing and predicting China's energy consumption structure by quadratic programming and homogeneous Markov chain.

Citation

Yuan, C., Song, D., Guo, B. and Xie, N. (2012), "Prediction of China's energy consumption structure", Kybernetes, Vol. 41 No. 5/6, pp. 559-567. https://doi.org/10.1108/03684921211243220