TESTS OF COMMON DETERMINISTIC TREND SLOPES APPLIED TO QUARTERLY GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DATA

Abstract

We examine the global warming temperature data sets of Jones et al. (1999) and Vinnikov et al. (1994) in the context of the multivariate deterministic trend-testing framework of Franses and Vogelsang (2002). We find that, across all seasons, global warming seems to be present for the globe and for the northern and southern hemispheres. Globally and within hemispheres, it appears that seasons are not warming equally fast. In particular, winters appear to be warming faster than summers. Across hemispheres, it appears that the winters in the northern and southern hemispheres are warming equally fast whereas the remaining seasons appear to have unequal warming rates. The results obtained here seem to coincide with the findings of Kaufmann and Stern (2002) who use cointegration analysis and find that the hemispheres are warming at different rates.

Citation

Fomby, T.B. and Vogelsang, T.J. (2003), "TESTS OF COMMON DETERMINISTIC TREND SLOPES APPLIED TO QUARTERLY GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DATA", Fomby, T.B. and Carter Hill, R. (Ed.) Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models: Twenty Years Later (Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 17), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 29-43. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0731-9053(03)17002-8