Case studies

Arizona Snowbowl, a ski area located in northern Arizona, experienced several years of inadequate snowfall resulting in both operating losses and negative cash flows. The CEO had to decide whether to commit $750,000 for an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) related to a proposed $19.77 million snowmaking project that uses reclaimed wastewater. U.S. Forest Service approval was required. Data for this case were obtained from the EIS that the Snowbowl submitted to the U.S. Forest Service (USFS). Estimated skier days, revenue levels, capital costs and interest rates are provided to facilitate the decision modeling process. Students are expected to analyze the financial information and decide whether or not undertaking the EIS project is cost effective while taking into account the possibility that the regulatory and legal system might not allow the project to go forward.

The Indian electricity sector was opened to the private sector under the IPP policy. The NTPC, India's largest and perhaps most efficient generator had to respond to the changing scenario. It set out to set up the Simhadri project in Andhra Pradesh, going beyond to original mandate. The IPP policy, its perversities, the background of the power sector, the problems there in and the response of NTPC are discussed. Case (B) discusses the issues related to Project Planning and Implementation.

Fonkoze is the largest Microfinance Institution in Haiti whose clients are mostly poor women. The authors had access to documents and meetings of the organization for an extended period, and observed the growth of the organization from a single office to 21 branch offices. In so doing, their staff had to spend increasing time in fundraising so that they could make more loans to the existing and new customers. This case presents the decisions of the Board and the management to alleviate some of those problems. Against a backdrop of political and civil turmoil, the case could be instructive for students and instructors alike. The Board had to decide whether to apply for status as a regulated bank, or to transform into some other financial entity.

CavinKare Private Limited has emerged as an important player in the Indian fast moving consumer goods market. It has not only survived cut-throat competition from formidable multinational companies, but also has recorded sustained high growth over the years. Its business model has included converting important consumer insights into superior products, innovation and experimentation, value pricing, and extending distribution access. The case discusses the challenge before the top management to put in place a strategy to translate the vision of making CavinKare a billion-dollar entity (Rs 52,000 million) by 2012 into reality.

CavinKare was planning to introduce soaps and detergents product in the market. Owing to the ongoing price war in the detergent segment between Hindustan Lever Limited and P&G, the company's managing director and chief executive officer were weighing the risks and benefits of entering the soaps and detergents market. They had to decide whether to enter the market or delay the entry. Another option was to abandon the entry plan altogether. The case discusses the dilemma faced by the company on market entry due to the changed market conditions.

The organizers of a music festival may use video from the Friday concert to create a DVD to sell to those who come to the Saturday concert. Attendance on Saturday is uncertain, as is the percentage of those who attend on Saturday who will buy the DVD. Is this a good project? If so, what number of DVDs should be burned early Saturday morning and offered for sale at that evening’s performance? By that time, Friday attendance is known, as well as whether it rained on Friday, and there is a forecast for whether it will rain on Saturday. Historical information on these variables may help us predict Saturday attendance using multiple regression; together with the results of a marketing survey, such analysis will help us make better purchasing decisions. This case series (see also the B case, UVA-QA-0708) can be used to illuminate a multitude of concepts that are covered in basic decision-analysis courses. The series starts by examining the role of uncertainty in decision-making, proceeds through the estimation of probability distributions from sample data with multiple regression, culminates in the development of a full decision model, and ends with a qualitative and quantitative analysis (with a tornado diagram) of how to add value and reduce risk. Key pitfalls for students are failing to recognize both limits on sales (supply and demand), incomplete reasoning in the determination of the attendance probability distribution, and oversimplifying the full forecast model.